Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model

<table class="table-group" id="tab6"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="6"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td align="left">Parameter</td><td align="center">Estimate</td><td align="center">Standard error</td><td align="center"><svg height="8.02022pt" id="M124" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -7.81382 4.54925 8.02022" width="4.54925pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z" id="g113-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="341" vert-adv-y="341"></glyph.data></g></svg>-value</td><td align="center">Approx. Pr &gt; <svg height="11.439pt" id="M125" style="vertical-align:-2.15067pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 11.4129 11.439" width="11.4129pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M162 -163V703H101V-163H162Z" id="g113-9"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="263" vert-adv-y="263"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,3.419,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z" id="g113-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="341" vert-adv-y="341"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,7.852,0)"><path d="M162 -163V703H101V-163H162Z" id="g113-9"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="263" vert-adv-y="263"></glyph.data></g></svg></td><td align="center">Lag</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="6"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td align="left">MA(<svg height="9.92533pt" id="M126" style="vertical-align:-1.57651pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 17.7806 9.92533" width="17.7806pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z" id="g113-45"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="228" vert-adv-y="228"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.383,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g></svg>)</td><td align="center">0.45098</td><td align="center">0.10373</td><td align="center">4.35</td><td align="center">&lt;0.0001</td><td align="center">1</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="6"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

Fitting parameter of <svg height="9.44254pt" id="M123" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.23615 30.5554 9.44254" width="30.5554pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M600 0V24L339 665L311 657L43 24V0H600ZM497 50H107L303 539L497 50Z" id="g113-133"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="641" vert-adv-y="641"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.506,0)"><path d="M238 0V26C174 32 166 38 166 104V712C132 700 70 683 18 677V653C81 647 87 645 87 577V104C87 38 78 32 15 26V0H238Z" id="g121-106"></path><glyph.data ascent="989" descent="-360" horiz-adv-x="253" vert-adv-y="253"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,13.795,0)"><path d="M524 0V26C466 32 460 36 460 104V297C460 393 411 449 331 449C302 449 276 437 248 419C223 402 201 387 181 372V451C137 432 90 420 42 411V388C96 378 102 374 102 310V104C102 38 97 33 29 26V0H246V26C187 32 181 36 181 104V339C211 365 250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z" id="g121-108"></path><glyph.data ascent="989" descent="-360" horiz-adv-x="547" vert-adv-y="547"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,23.124,0)"><path d="M536 404C536 423 520 448 491 448C445 448 398 404 308 283L286 338C255 416 242 448 217 448C182 448 138 402 92 341L111 321C149 368 169 378 178 378C188 378 198 363 214 320L254 212C185 117 138 65 107 65C98 65 85 69 82 75C79 82 73 86 65 86C44 86 23 60 23 39C23 7 44 -12 71 -12C119 -12 168 33 265 177L306 61C321 17 347 -12 373 -12C413 -12 465 33 507 96L491 119C459 84 432 60 413 60C395 60 378 92 358 148L321 250C341 279 369 310 389 332C417 363 439 382 456 382C466 382 475 376 481 368C486 361 492 358 496 358C513 358 536 381 536 404Z" id="g113-121"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="559" vert-adv-y="559"></glyph.data></g></svg> model.

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

tab6

Table 6

Table 6: Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model 