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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2015, Article ID 606707, 6 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/606707
Research Article

An Optimized Grey GM(2,1) Model and Forecasting of Highway Subgrade Settlement

Ning Xu1 and Yao-guo Dang1,2,3

1College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211100, China
2Institute of Grey System Study, Nanjing 211100, China
3Jiangsu Center of Post Evaluation, Nanjing 211100, China

Received 27 July 2014; Accepted 28 December 2014

Academic Editor: Haipeng Peng

Copyright © 2015 Ning Xu and Yao-guo Dang. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Grey prediction technique is a useful tool for few data analysis and short term forecasting. GM(2,1) model is one of the most important grey models. For improving the precision and prediction ability, we proposed a structure optimized GM(2,1) model, namely, SOGM(2,1) model. This study contributes grey prediction theory on three points. First, SOGM(2,1) model utilizes background sequence and inverse accumulating generated sequence to construct new grey equation with optimized structure, and then estimation of parameters is derived based on least errors. Second, reflection equation is constructed and the solving process is derived with the time response function acquired. Third, we put forward a new method for establishing initial values of time response function. After that, the new model is used to predict highway settlement of an engineering assessment. Comparing with other models, the results show that SOGM(2,1) is effective and practicable to forecast.