Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Study and Its Application Using a Hybrid Model Optimized by Cuckoo Search

Table 1

Forecasted results in three cases.

Site	Month	Forecasted results
			BP	PBP	Elman	PElman	SVR	PSVR
Jiling Shoal	January	MAE	0.6719	0.6585	0.7360	0.7316	0.6620	0.6551
		MSE	0.9760	0.9480	1.0770	1.0610	0.9792	0.9613
		MAPE (%)	15.28	13.39	17.40	16.33	13.01	12.88
		SMPAE (%)	12.45	12.07	13.54	13.39	12.35	12.15
	April	MAE	0.6467	0.5242	0.5849	0.5345	0.5209	0.4947
		MSE	0.8420	0.7016	0.7522	0.7187	0.6922	0.6705
		MAPE (%)	9.96	8.30	9.19	8.46	7.93	7.79
		SMPAE (%)	9.96	8.41	9.18	8.61	8.20	7.96
	July	MAE	0.8534	0.8007	0.8133	0.792	0.8108	0.7653
		MSE	1.1730	1.1700	1.1280	1.147	1.1640	1.1430
		MAPE (%)	13.42	12.29	12.9	12.38	12.53	11.58
		SMPAE (%)	13.24	12.39	12.69	12.37	12.56	11.86
	October	MAE	0.5814	0.5499	0.5812	0.5614	0.5432	0.5182
		MSE	0.7665	0.7583	0.7745	0.7681	0.7940	0.6811
		MAPE (%)	11.73	10.48	11.70	10.67	10.92	10.16
		SMPAE (%)	11.25	10.25	11.34	10.51	10.70	9.97
Qingtu Lake	January	MAE	0.6657	0.6275	0.6522	0.6420	0.6664	0.6271
		MSE	0.9204	0.8949	0.9096	0.8919	0.9303	0.8969
		MAPE (%)	17.23	15.66	16.82	16.33	17.28	15.68
		SMPAE (%)	15.90	14.67	15.56	15.15	15.98	14.64
	April	MAE	0.7838	0.7752	0.8357	0.8249	0.7533	0.7455
		MSE	1.0920	1.0850	1.1570	1.1530	1.0620	1.0830
		MAPE (%)	22.00	21.07	23.76	23.33	20.99	20.16
		SMPAE (%)	20.05	19.79	21.95	21.49	19.31	19.11
	July	MAE	0.7822	0.7643	0.7422	0.7271	0.7560	0.7418
		MSE	1.1640	1.2080	1.1050	1.0630	1.1420	1.1140
		MAPE (%)	19.76	18.80	18.62	17.24	18.83	17.61
		SMPAE (%)	17.02	16.16	16.23	15.66	16.21	15.69
	October	MAE	0.5724	0.5593	0.5469	0.5347	0.5477	0.5336
		MSE	0.7772	0.7789	0.7616	0.7458	0.7574	0.7436
		MAPE (%)	12.81	12.42	12.18	11.97	12.33	12.02
		SMPAE (%)	12.34	12.18	11.76	11.52	11.77	11.47
NSW	January	MAE	1.6519	1.5083	2.5160	1.9229	1.5308	1.3921
		MSE	2.3697	2.0388	3.4833	2.6229	2.1335	2.0616
		MAPE (%)	6.99	6.39	10.57	8.24	6.43	5.63
		SMPAE (%)	6.83	6.48	10.36	7.98	6.40	5.71