Research Article
Using a Novel Grey System Model to Forecast Natural Gas Consumption in China
Table 1
The fitted values (unit: 100 million cubic meters) and MAPE of five grey models.
| Year | Actual value | Model (39) | ARGM(1, 1) | Reference [14] | WLSGM(1, 1) | DGM(1, 1) |
| 1995 | 177.53143 | 173.677 | 177.53143 | 190.24323 | 177.53143 | 177.53143 | 1996 | 188.04992 | 181.593 | 187.961 | 183.65849 | 190.990 | 149.31 | 1997 | 176.13278 | 191.694 | 201.029 | 184.90875 | 207.706 | 169.38 | 1998 | 218.69985 | 204.583 | 217.403 | 193.99401 | 228.466 | 192.15 | 1999 | 215.3371 | 221.030 | 237.920 | 210.91426 | 254.251 | 217.98 | 2000 | 244.81169 | 242.015 | 263.628 | 235.66952 | 286.276 | 247.29 | 2001 | 274.55447 | 268.793 | 295.840 | 268.25976 | 326.051 | 280.53 | 2002 | 292.18069 | 302.961 | 336.202 | 308.68501 | 375.451 | 318.25 | 2003 | 339.45429 | 346.559 | 386.775 | 356.94525 | 436.806 | 361.03 | 2004 | 397.28586 | 402.191 | 450.143 | 413.04049 | 513.010 | 409.57 | 2005 | 486.93617 | 473.177 | 529.543 | 476.97073 | 607.654 | 464.63 | 2006 | 561.05120 | 563.756 | 629.031 | 548.73596 | 725.202 | 527.10 | MAPE | ā | 3.092 | 8.657 | 4.406 | 18.173 | 6.96 |
| 2007 | 698.903 | 679.333 | 753.690 | 679.955 | 871.197 | 597.96 | 2008 | 807.857 | 826.811 | 909.888 | 774.429 | 1052.523 | 678.35 | MAPE | ā | 2.573 | 10.234 | 10.75 | 27.469 | 15.236 |
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