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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2015, Article ID 740490, 14 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/740490
Research Article

Research and Application of a New Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Genetic Algorithm Optimization: A Case Study of Shandong Wind Farm in China

1School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China
2Department of Statistics, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4330, USA

Received 16 October 2014; Revised 19 December 2014; Accepted 20 December 2014

Academic Editor: Reza Jazar

Copyright © 2015 Ping Jiang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

With the increasing depletion of fossil fuel and serious destruction of environment, wind power, as a kind of clean and renewable resource, is more and more connected to the power system and plays a crucial role in power dispatch of hybrid system. Thus, it is necessary to forecast wind speed accurately for the operation of wind farm in hybrid system. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model called EEMD-GA-FAC/SAC to forecast wind speed. First, the Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) can be applied to eliminate the noise of the original data. After data preprocessing, first-order adaptive coefficient forecasting method (FAC) or second-order adaptive coefficient forecasting method (SAC) can be employed to do forecast. It is significant to select optimal parameters for an effective model. Thus, genetic algorithm (GA) is used to determine parameter of the hybrid model. In order to verify the validity of the proposed model, every ten-minute wind speed data from three observation sites in Shandong Peninsula of China and several error evaluation criteria can be collected. Through comparing with traditional BP, ARIMA, FAC, and SAC model, the experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model EEMD-GA-FAC/SAC has the best forecasting performance.