Mathematical Problems in Engineering / 2015 / Article / Tab 1

Research Article

Research and Application of a New Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Genetic Algorithm Optimization: A Case Study of Shandong Wind Farm in China

Table 1

The forecasting results of four traditional models for original data.

Data TimeActual value (m/s)FAC ( = 0.2)SAC ( = 0.2)BPARIMA
Forecasting value (m/s)MAPE (%)Forecasting value (m/s)MAPE (%)Forecasting value (m/s)MAPE (%)Forecasting value (m/s)MAPE (%)

Observation site 10:006.76.631.036.690.157.248.037.187.18
2:008.47.767.587.747.818.004.807.965.29
4:008.57.867.487.847.778.005.928.005.91
6:006.97.143.527.153.557.082.687.224.57
8:006.86.671.926.731.026.169.346.287.70
10:006.96.860.536.801.517.163.737.153.58
12:008.37.756.667.736.847.509.617.4210.59
14:0010.610.670.6310.670.6510.471.1910.263.23
16:009.69.791.969.812.1810.428.569.892.98
18:0011.711.810.9410.678.7711.660.3611.962.20
20:0010.310.522.1010.522.1610.411.0410.062.38
22:00129.4121.589.4121.579.9017.529.8218.19

Observation site 20:007.36.5610.096.5510.256.698.316.5710.03
2:008.58.173.888.163.968.292.478.361.59
4:008.17.961.717.902.438.100.047.902.43
6:0088.354.398.324.048.415.148.283.52
8:007.26.489.996.499.846.628.116.983.07
10:0077.010.156.960.567.344.906.793.03
12:008.47.747.857.737.977.2114.217.3612.38
14:0011.610.658.1610.618.5110.836.6510.588.78
16:008.99.597.749.638.169.537.1210.0212.56
18:0010.910.028.0310.047.8511.192.6810.721.61
20:0010.611.195.5411.215.7210.731.2111.013.91
22:0011.412.277.6012.318.0212.529.7912.196.93

Observation site 30:008.39.3412.499.3712.838.917.328.897.05
2:009.48.865.698.845.929.202.138.994.35
4:009.29.240.459.210.099.462.859.361.79
6:008.18.150.598.150.658.292.298.150.56
8:008.38.472.048.472.008.694.748.502.40
10:007.17.8210.087.799.657.8410.387.8810.93
12:008.88.681.358.681.409.012.338.710.98
14:0010.39.903.919.943.529.864.289.388.95
16:0010.111.049.3111.019.0411.9718.5511.5714.57
18:0012.211.237.9411.228.0511.604.9111.426.37
20:0012.211.624.7911.614.8711.684.2911.823.14
22:001110.742.3210.702.7211.484.3311.262.37