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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2015, Article ID 897952, 10 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/897952
Research Article

“Section to Point” Correction Method for Wind Power Forecasting Based on Cloud Theory

1School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2College of Electrical Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410006, China

Received 11 September 2014; Revised 11 November 2014; Accepted 21 November 2014

Academic Editor: Davide Spinello

Copyright © 2015 Dunnan Liu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

As an intermittent energy, wind power has the characteristics of randomness and uncontrollability. It is of great significance to improve the accuracy of wind power forecasting. Currently, most models for wind power forecasting are based on wind speed forecasting. However, it is stuck in a dilemma called “garbage in, garbage out,” which means it is difficult to improve the forecasting accuracy without improving the accuracy of input data such as the wind speed. In this paper, a new model based on cloud theory is proposed. It establishes a more accurate relational model between the wind power and wind speed, which has lots of catastrophe points. Then, combined with the trend during adjacent time and the laws of historical data, the forecasting value will be corrected by the theory of “section to point” correction. It significantly improves the stability of forecasting accuracy and reduces significant forecasting errors at some particular points. At last, by analyzing the data of generation power and historical wind speed in Inner Mongolia, China, it is proved that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of wind speed forecasting.