A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and the Cuckoo Search Algorithm: A Case Study for Power Load

Table 7

Comparison of power load forecasting result by using different methods on Tuesday, Apr. 29, 2008, from New South Wales.

	Time	0:00	2:00	4:00	6:00	8:00	10:00	12:00	14:00	16:00	18:00	20:00	22:00	Average
BPNN	AE	4.3235	104.427	1.9326	−169.582	7.9721	−163.878	−189.155	−9.9777	−133.868	−23.2861	22.6951	−8.1229	−9.6227
	MAE	217.8733	215.1561	232.6085	296.2496	297.4614	329.2282	349.862	321.6289	310.8799	328.0564	307.5204	253.7871	293.1005
	MSE	47552.31	46537.35	54319.34	88796.61	89366.89	109897.5	122842.7	104957.9	98292.89	108873.5	96080.46	64784.3	88590.6
	MAPE	2.8131	3.2020	3.3602	3.3071	3.0174	3.2299	3.4431	3.2158	3.1271	3.4705	3.4071	3.0137	3.2725
GABPNN	AE	−128.819	116.37	−93.8387	5.9302	−25.0426	−157.356	2.0908	145.7456	−282.984	11.7947	129.7324	−11.5832	−16.1558
	MAE	260.8535	181.5997	191.8484	262.899	271.7663	306.0667	293.922	285.5415	282.9845	279.7753	244.2308	206.0163	254.9086
	MSE	68557.96	35322.65	39010.9	71358.5	76860.8	96621.05	91438.31	82785.86	81937.17	80203.93	60197.01	43169.73	68551.07
	MAPE	3.3665	2.7102	2.7624	2.9323	2.7553	3.0142	2.8718	2.8589	2.8581	2.9660	2.7122	2.4488	2.8472
WNN	AE	−102.792	−89.2578	95.7712	−95.0562	15.7301	−8.0755	−132.3	110.6793	127.7917	−302.974	17.0601	33.8715	23.1926
	MAE	237.6748	198.5173	194.0934	276.8971	362.0218	334.4987	301.0269	303.3078	290.4403	302.9738	315.3741	285.342	284.0601
	MSE	57399.3	40265.36	39263.54	79362.39	131879.1	114268.9	91690.29	94464.47	85736.09	95667.19	101536.4	83146.33	85230.43
	MAPE	3.0684	2.9532	2.8117	3.0867	3.6747	3.2822	2.9631	3.0161	2.9222	3.2051	3.4881	3.3871	3.1717
CSAWNN	AE	2.7198	2.9868	−88.3877	122.0205	−143.045	−12.6708	−13.6472	4.8180	110.5905	−114.276	1.9674	−127.205	0.9651
	MAE	205.4517	170.8708	173.308	216.7274	244.0602	287.2786	252.2365	266.4932	268.5673	259.4214	244.6435	229.1077	231.6409
	MSE	42279.49	29713.52	30554.35	47370.17	60689.6	82774.86	63979.43	72549.97	72983.45	67791.63	60267.6	52777.79	55535.78
	MAPE	2.6528	2.5465	2.4986	2.4191	2.4748	2.8256	2.4824	2.6584	2.6966	2.7463	2.7141	2.7266	2.5827
ARIMA	AE	22.0044	278.4617	−1.9584	−222.701	−204.82	−201.995	−411.791	−53.4355	193.9193	−232.404	−15.6347	3.8278	−48.5181
	MAE	276.2362	278.4617	255.0419	411.837	374.2884	384.3065	411.7913	355.8697	329.2014	404.3898	374.5698	299.1434	336.7285
	MSE	78244.45	78470.78	65671.56	170074.2	144274.5	151190.6	173159.5	133331.2	112870.9	165704.4	141249.1	90175.37	118788.7
	MAPE	3.5681	4.1448	3.6876	4.5914	3.8021	3.7762	4.0691	3.5361	3.2986	4.2747	4.1591	3.5501	3.7549
ENN	AE	−122.3804	−106.1050	112.1774	−124.5511	11.2302	−5.7063	−154.8530	138.7430	150.4820	−334.3572	13.6915	25.3581	23.7370
	MAE	266.7030	226.0328	225.6456	309.9669	380.8511	365.7942	342.4249	342.0588	332.0910	334.3572	337.4444	308.6425	314.8147
	MSE	71574.4601	51519.8987	51615.5316	97406.4037	145424.6816	135137.5738	117847.8733	118529.0844	111042.3847	113745.3418	115039.8651	96156.4770	102413.9259
	MAPE	3.4432	3.3631	3.2647	3.4560	3.8651	3.5920	3.3700	3.4068	3.3416	3.5383	3.7352	3.6650	3.5151
RBFNN	AE	−128.8194	116.3700	−93.8387	5.9302	−25.0426	−157.3556	2.0909	145.7456	−282.9845	11.7948	129.7324	−11.5832	−16.1558
	MAE	260.8535	181.5997	191.8484	262.8990	271.7663	306.0667	293.9220	285.5415	282.9845	279.7753	244.2308	206.0163	254.9086
	MSE	68557.9649	35322.6478	39010.8992	71358.4965	76860.7961	96621.0544	91438.3143	82785.8632	81937.1664	80203.9338	60197.0099	43169.7279	68551.0659
	MAPE	3.3665	2.7103	2.7625	2.9324	2.7553	3.0142	2.8718	2.8589	2.8582	2.9660	2.7123	2.4489	2.8473
EMD-CSAWNN	AE	71.8585	19.0263	119.4944	−0.2347	−85.8361	21.7152	162.9778	198.7374	12.5729	0.7221	7.0831	11.6529	13.8229
	MAE	135.0333	124.2513	119.4944	159.9286	166.286	188.3798	162.9778	198.7374	191.4925	164.075	155.0245	145.8072	159.2127
	MSE	18544.32	15861.56	14935.85	25684.91	28077.06	36387.53	26760.25	39816.23	38064.54	28373.25	24954.2	21683.46	26609.38
	MAPE	1.7439	1.8477	1.7241	1.7831	1.6889	1.8577	1.6033	1.9844	1.9379	1.7341	1.7161	1.7319	1.7811