A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and the Cuckoo Search Algorithm: A Case Study for Power Load

Table 8

Comparison of power load forecasting result by using different methods on Saturday, Jun. 28, 2008, from Victoria.

	Time	0:00	2:00	4:00	6:00	8:00	10:00	12:00	14:00	16:00	18:00	20:00	22:00	Average
BPNN	AE	−74.2069	88.5026	164.3428	−94.2384	−108.445	99.3887	−131.822	−97.1293	132.6263	−9.9181	−199.556	95.9906	−25.4772
	MAE	161.8614	176.3894	164.3428	175.3241	219.8255	225.0625	233.3815	229.9635	234.7046	233.2327	199.5555	182.4864	206.2306
	MSE	26380.04	31503.46	27247.69	31227.59	48517.87	51693.03	54905.29	54093.61	55631.95	54814.4	39922.9	33457.23	43708.18
	MAPE	2.9997	3.3342	3.4049	3.1834	3.3696	3.3340	3.5174	3.4406	3.5467	3.1652	2.9644	3.0498	3.3224
GABPNN	AE	95.3661	152.9973	70.1585	95.8643	21.4256	−10.3011	65.8767	6.8887	−16.0091	−14.2224	97.4645	19.2111	3.9264
	MAE	163.6398	152.9973	142.3091	180.6853	192.6446	181.9683	151.09	198.873	168.6475	242.7444	202.9146	183.0895	178.1422
	MSE	27233.94	23592.27	20427.45	33187.61	37879.35	34166.35	23242.55	40431.09	28919.45	60044.79	41793.54	34130.68	33502.97
	MAPE	3.0324	2.8936	2.9494	3.2736	2.9262	2.7029	2.2710	3.0080	2.5461	3.3061	3.0207	3.0576	2.8656
WNN	AE	175.8896	27.8588	−7.9285	86.3077	139.9775	201.231	90.7231	39.9104	18.8402	−108.905	−114.363	193.1549	4.4674
	MAE	175.8896	156.0152	172.6755	164.069	207.6373	201.231	193.4483	205.2855	183.8711	259.0394	186.1753	193.1549	200.6168
	MSE	31845.68	25360.07	30586.03	27917.8	45875.7	42312.96	38650.67	43776.7	34700.63	69347.15	35949.54	38952.51	42677.08
	MAPE	3.2604	2.9507	3.5751	2.9766	3.1492	2.9988	2.9427	3.1425	2.7626	3.5188	2.7591	3.2385	3.2301
CSAWNN	AE	−44.652	−131.152	−63.0165	11.4112	−9.5339	−0.7664	171.5844	193.7814	7.9337	106.7022	3.6645	−69.7819	12.6984
	MAE	124.0692	131.1523	114.0833	146.3165	167.5085	165.3564	171.5844	193.7814	195.2323	191.7276	146.8918	141.5059	156.8164
	MSE	15804.77	17589.3	13292.63	21642.06	29014.79	27346.81	30261.31	37723.03	38246.53	36979.81	21623.75	20248.95	25425.16
	MAPE	2.2995	2.4781	2.3604	2.6579	2.5319	2.4803	2.5786	2.9203	2.9527	2.6113	2.1818	2.3631	2.5248
ARIMA	AE	18.5613	124.0827	−14.7831	111.8472	−20.6124	−19.7243	120.3048	26.1011	−146.313	−172.198	23.3302	145.1471	18.9775
	MAE	227.3289	204.722	167.4229	212.6136	230.4365	247.6076	230.858	253.9037	267.5722	296.6621	255.3748	241.6215	233.6259
	MSE	52394.21	43176.64	28355.68	45620.29	53698.66	62570.82	54191.74	65290.6	72666.23	90860.47	67238.24	59345.33	56855.39
	MAPE	4.2174	3.8741	3.4718	3.8504	3.5598	3.7094	3.4799	3.8433	4.0557	4.0217	3.7627	4.0433	3.7716
ENN	AE	−98.995	−95.8081	17.1172	6.0116	90.0902	−141.101	100.5493	4.7625	−229.624	18.1665	126.2839	11.7423	6.5262
	MAE	189.6312	190.0733	171.6852	196.7854	231.2569	235.0732	210.1064	229.5182	229.6243	230.8097	254.2102	198.2688	210.274
	MSE	36109.8	36258.98	29924.18	39256.18	56148.35	56021.74	44222.47	53380.62	52793.31	53676.67	64753.52	39571.84	45444.62
	MAPE	3.5163	3.5974	3.5538	3.5618	3.4650	3.4901	3.1873	3.4500	3.4851	3.1379	3.7591	3.3164	3.3890
RBFNN	AE	−98.2027	−73.2415	57.3594	77.1316	9.4619	96.7952	101.7499	−14.9842	−97.2306	97.9996	−110.216	86.7962	−11.4032
	MAE	172.1148	156.3662	146.8716	171.0673	214.0821	228.8974	212.5963	212.2372	213.3772	228.0278	213.4688	169.8724	196.9359
	MSE	30159.71	24592.22	21954	29579.24	47567.12	53850.57	45459.14	45699.94	45988.64	52566.64	45607.02	28877.88	39869.92
	MAPE	3.1912	2.9543	3.0386	3.0942	3.2266	3.3889	3.2246	3.1832	3.2214	3.1122	3.1605	2.8405	3.1754
EMD-CSAWNN	AE	35.0621	51.5938	41.9313	−56.3883	−10.8655	51.1997	−42.3959	84.1310	70.1839	82.8233	46.4874	−55.1894	6.6501
	MAE	91.3676	100.3773	81.2863	92.1573	108.8744	104.7747	119.9606	137.012	110.6269	141.76	109.7464	115.5855	109.712
	MSE	8629.51	10214.74	6858.997	8885.95	12543.16	11063.31	14958.06	19196.88	12798.02	20368.17	12301.46	13873.76	12612.17
	MAPE	1.6951	1.8968	1.6898	1.6576	1.6298	1.5798	1.8118	2.0503	1.6639	1.9325	1.6329	1.9192	1.7699