A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and the Cuckoo Search Algorithm: A Case Study for Power Load

Table 9

Comparison of power load forecasting result by using different methods on Monday, Jun. 30, 2008, from Victoria.

	Time	0:00	2:00	4:00	6:00	8:00	10:00	12:00	14:00	16:00	18:00	20:00	22:00	Average
BPNN	AE	−97.1358	−5.79918	−77.632	−69.5865	−5.12235	181.7938	−108.862	172.1967	−11.7116	−112.91	−1.05112	−5.29961	7.270652
	MAE	180.8076	174.7874	160.6262	161.5628	166.0493	181.7938	187.9272	172.1967	176.0733	215.9977	187.979	197.6079	181.9883
	MSE	32946.72	30612.98	26035.71	26290.49	27633.14	33390.49	35789.18	29752.65	31224.95	46849.69	35447.84	39567.68	33681.6
	MAPE	3.2431	3.2773	3.3784	3.3739	3.1979	3.2166	3.3433	3.0728	3.0901	3.2467	3.0113	3.9915	3.2747
GABPNN	AE	87.0447	182.023	62.5079	−12.5589	−92.6525	−84.4608	−25.4557	19.48	−22.7953	76.9831	78.4895	−6.6962	4.1017
	MAE	148.3886	182.023	116.5217	112.0699	155.8314	181.3435	153.1462	162.2208	182.3206	182.7003	175.2353	132.1649	158.2286
	MSE	23338.89	33529.04	14089.3	12900.14	24927.85	33303.2	24526.58	26867.37	34101.29	35242.19	31203.34	17935.79	26253.68
	MAPE	2.6633	3.4117	2.4520	2.3381	3.005	3.2113	2.7189	2.8955	3.1883	2.7492	2.8096	2.3376	2.8415
WNN	AE	−3.4921	−74.9511	−134.269	−80.2326	−142.363	64.7736	−111.042	−89.0593	139.566	14.1565	−82.5293	66.4498	−4.1007
	MAE	153.3954	185.6073	134.2689	174.9947	142.3635	174.6803	186.5582	193.4015	139.566	212.2396	156.4929	167.1148	171.6629
	MSE	23561.14	35229.8	18364.93	31218.27	21459.47	33650.21	37245.82	38184.73	19503.57	47310.2	24810.93	28778.48	31298.91
	MAPE	2.7532	3.4749	2.8191	3.6561	2.7458	3.0828	3.3176	3.4628	2.4491	3.1823	2.5057	2.9566	3.0806
CSAWNN	AE	−5.0573	−3.8213	1.3263	41.3898	54.9301	−66.0719	14.6333	−3.6448	149.7019	80.7116	3.7387	−73.6169	8.0382
	MAE	156.8892	136.6022	125.5879	113.7244	116.9543	143.8786	140.1588	139.9815	149.7019	159.8907	133.4934	137.4735	141.3812
	MSE	24786.49	18999.83	15803.74	13261.64	13725.91	20966.75	20021.99	19790.28	22684.1	25822.94	17849.43	18934.4	20481.5
	MAPE	2.8144	2.5621	2.6401	2.3753	2.2519	2.5478	2.5001	2.5018	2.6261	2.4020	2.1398	2.4302	2.5422
ARIMA	AE	14.7023	24.8103	26.0758	96.5552	−103.598	67.3243	1.5328	−12.8999	229.6626	254.5464	−133.048	125.5915	−0.7485
	MAE	183.057	217.205	158.1086	187.75	186.6591	198.3604	205.3784	213.5527	229.6626	254.5464	240.3672	236.3162	209.7854
	MSE	34965.65	47841.28	26107.02	35347.8	35329.16	41301.58	42893.69	46719.97	54654.13	65818.94	58199.06	55984.16	45718.98
	MAPE	3.2795	4.0777	3.3209	3.9201	3.5982	3.5138	3.6743	3.8162	4.0242	3.8204	3.8526	4.1783	3.7656
ENN	AE	−88.6146	−85.0312	75.6176	−69.7223	4.5320	−0.8129	−87.546	82.3113	88.4143	−227.985	3.5052	12.0972	8.3585
	MAE	186.9891	175.8838	153.515	161.1809	190.7898	196.0601	185.4341	186.5996	187.2131	227.9848	223.304	199.3213	189.5443
	MSE	35060.02	31090.34	23853.32	26154.44	36507.3	38584.26	34554.06	35020.38	35263.23	52336.47	50161.92	39941.99	36505.16
	MAPE	3.3574	3.2973	3.2235	3.3669	3.6738	3.4690	3.3024	3.3301	3.2811	3.4287	3.5763	3.5237	3.4113
RBFNN	AE	−98.586	97.2085	−72.7937	0.0161	−10.8099	−94.714	−1.0184	92.2613	−182.302	5.0740	100.423	−5.2195	−12.4652
	MAE	196.4346	166.1881	149.5233	155.7541	163.1654	186.8753	180.256	179.795	182.3024	217.8852	194.234	166.6086	177.8178
	MSE	38661.36	28328.97	22697.24	24518.37	27001.22	35355.86	32968.16	32671.75	33413.99	47850.86	37890.5	27884.44	32243.32
	MAPE	3.5262	3.1117	3.1447	3.2520	3.1402	3.3037	3.2137	3.2056	3.2051	3.2732	3.1130	2.9466	3.1982
EMD-CSAWNN	AE	−4.1652	−40.9803	−54.073	−28.5539	−49.4364	−46.9202	−1.3708	−51.2203	−61.0243	58.5634	44.2871	55.8282	6.1509
	MAE	99.0617	81.542	83.7323	70.3801	80.9749	82.0208	114.0354	111.8617	115.3834	129.6408	110.32	105.1976	96.6039
	MSE	10306.84	6696.25	7299.67	5046.59	6865.14	6815.57	13126.18	12711.91	13468.79	17077.42	12871.21	11278.86	9834.31
	MAPE	1.7771	1.5295	1.7617	1.4701	1.5594	1.4521	2.0361	2.0032	2.0227	1.9479	1.7703	1.8607	1.7312