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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2016, Article ID 3623412, 21 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/3623412
Research Article

Multistep Wind Speed Forecasting Using a Novel Model Hybridizing Singular Spectrum Analysis, Modified Intelligent Optimization, and Rolling Elman Neural Network

School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, China

Received 27 April 2016; Revised 16 September 2016; Accepted 26 September 2016

Academic Editor: Mario Cools

Copyright © 2016 Zhongshan Yang and Jian Wang. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Wind speed high-accuracy forecasting, an important part of the electrical system monitoring and control, is of the essence to protect the safety of wind power utilization. However, the wind speed signals are always intermittent and intrinsic complexity; therefore, it is difficult to forecast them accurately. Many traditional wind speed forecasting studies have focused on single models, which leads to poor prediction accuracy. In this paper, a new hybrid model is proposed to overcome the shortcoming of single models by combining singular spectrum analysis, modified intelligent optimization, and the rolling Elman neural network. In this model, except for the multiple seasonal patterns used to reduce interferences from the original data, the rolling model is utilized to forecast the multistep wind speed. To verify the forecasting ability of the proposed hybrid model, 10 min and 60 min wind speed data from the province of Shandong, China, were proposed in this paper as the case study. Compared to the other models, the proposed hybrid model forecasts the wind speed with higher accuracy.