Multidimensional and Interactive Assessment Model of Large-Scale Infrastructure Project and Its Demonstration Based on Double Utility

Table 8

The calculation of Project A’s individual risk utility value.

Individual risks	Occurrence probability	Influence on objective value	NPV (billion yuan)	Objective utility (billion yuan)	Subjective utility coefficient	Total utility coefficient	Total utility
Design mistakes (R11)	38%	−17%	−34	−12.92	0.32	1.32	−15.89
Wrong construction procedure (R12)	29%	−16%	−32	−9.28	0.34	1.34	−12.44
Improper maintenance or updates (R13)	34%	−12%	−24	−8.16	0.23	1.23	−10.77
Cost rising (R21)	78%	−6%	−12	−9.36	0.27	1.27	−11.89
Market demand reduction (R22)	93%	−4%	−8	−7.44	0.25	1.25	−9.30
Financing difficulties (R23)	23%	−13%	−26	−5.98	0.31	1.31	−7.83
Government regulation change (R31)	48%	−19%	−38	−18.24	0.45	1.45	−26.45
Popular opposition (R32)	68%	−8%	−16	−10.88	0.09	1.09	−11.86
Social security incident (R33)	26%	−9%	−18	−4.68	0.24	1.24	−5.80
Major natural disasters (R41)	56%	−16%	−32	−17.92	0.33	1.33	−23.83
Bad weather (R42)	68%	−2%	−4	−2.72	0.11	1.11	−3.02
Insufficient feasibility study (R51)	44%	−18%	−36	−15.84	0.38	1.38	−21.86
Decision-making mistakes (R52)	36%	−29%	−58	−20.88	0.54	1.54	−32.16
Main body violation (R61)	52%	−8%	−16	−8.32	0.49	1.49	−12.40
Main body default (R62)	13%	−12%	−24	−3.12	0.58	1.58	−4.93