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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2016, Article ID 9786107, 9 pages
Research Article

Research on the Concentration Prediction of Nitrogen in Red Tide Based on an Optimal Grey Verhulst Model

1The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Manufacturing and Robotics, School of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation, Shanghai University, Mailbox 232, No. 149 Yanchang Road, Shanghai 200072, China
2Department of Mechanical Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48105, USA

Received 21 March 2016; Revised 2 August 2016; Accepted 15 August 2016

Academic Editor: Rosana Rodriguez-Lopez

Copyright © 2016 Xiaomei Hu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


In order to reduce the harm of red tide to marine ecological balance, marine fisheries, aquatic resources, and human health, an optimal Grey Verhulst model is proposed to predict the concentration of nitrogen in seawater, which is the key factor in red tide. The Grey Verhulst model is established according to the existing concentration data series of nitrogen in seawater, which is then optimized based on background value and time response formula to predict the future changes in the nitrogen concentration in seawater. Finally, the accuracy of the model is tested by the posterior test. The results show that the prediction value based on the optimal Grey Verhulst model is in good agreement with the measured nitrogen concentration in seawater, which proves the effectiveness of the optimal Grey Verhulst model in the forecast of red tide.