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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2016, Article ID 9828676, 10 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/9828676
Research Article

Research and Application of Fire Forecasting Model for Electric Transmission Lines Incorporating Meteorological Data and Human Activities

Jiazheng Lu,1,2 Jun Guo,1,2 Li Yang,1,2 Tao Feng,1,2 and Jie Zhang1,2

1State Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Reduction for Power Grid Transmission and Distribution Equipment, Changsha 410129, China
2State Grid Hunan Electric Power Company Disaster Prevention and Reduction Center, Changsha 410129, China

Received 12 March 2016; Accepted 29 September 2016

Academic Editor: Marco Mussetta

Copyright © 2016 Jiazheng Lu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Recently, there is a rise in frequency of fires which pose a serious threat to the safety operation of electric transmission lines. Several ultrahigh voltage (UHV) electric transmission lines, including Fufeng line, Jinsu line, Longzheng line, and Changnan line, showed many times tripping or bipolar latching caused by fire disasters. Fire disasters have tended to be the biggest threat to the safety operation of electric transmission lines and even can cause power grid collapse in some severe situations. Researchers have made much research on fires forecasting. However, these studies are mainly concentrated on predicting fires based on measured or forecasting meteorological data and do not take into account the effect of human activities. In fact, fire disasters have a very close relationship with human activities. In our research, a fire prediction model is proposed incorporating meteorological data as well as human activities. And this model is applied in Hunan province and Anhui province, which seriously suffer from fire disasters. The results show that the model has good prediction precision and can be a powerful tool for practical application.