Research Article
A Modified Lotka–Volterra Model for Diffusion and Substitution of Multigeneration DRAM Processing Technologies
Table 2
Prediction errors based on different data sets, models, and stages; 90-nanometer dividing line.
| | Stage | Number of
training periods | Number of
testing periods | Earmarked market
share for new
processing technologies | Prediction accuracy | Processing
technologies | Revenue (MAPE) | Market share (MAE) | | Bass model | LV model | Bass
model without | LV model without | Modified Lotka–
Volterra model |
| | () | 19 | 17 | 98% | Old | >105% | >105% | 0.57% | 0.14% | 0.16% | | New | 11.13% | 12.22% | 0.57% | 0.21% | 0.16% | | () | 16 | 20 | 95% | Old | >105% | >105% | 1.61% | 0.17% | 0.20% | | New | 9.69% | 11.13% | 0.56% | 0.18% | 0.20% | | () | 15 | 21 | 90% | Old | >105% | >105% | 2.45% | 0.24% | 0.24% | | New | 9.40% | 9.52% | 2.44% | 0.32% | 0.24% | | () | 13 | 23 | 80% | Old | >105% | >105% | 5.05% | 0.29% | 0.29% | | New | 9.07% | 23.46% | 2.33% | 1.37% | 0.29% | | () | 12 | 24 | 70% | Old | >105% | >105% | 4.94% | 0.25% | 0.33% | | New | 16.20% | 62.91% | 5.37% | 1.11% | 0.33% | | () | 11 | 25 | 60% | Old | >105% | >105% | 4.61% | 0.36% | 0.44% | | New | 11.05% | 93.34% | 4.60% | 0.46% | 0.44% | | () | 10 | 26 | 50% | Old | >105% | >105% | 17.12% | 41.91% | 0.50% | | New | 14.50% | 93.34% | 17.11% | 91.90% | 0.50% |
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