Research Article
A Modified Lotka–Volterra Model for Diffusion and Substitution of Multigeneration DRAM Processing Technologies
Table 3
Prediction errors based on different data sets, models, and stages; 80-nanometer dividing line.
| Stage | Number of training periods | Number of testing periods | Earmarked market share for new processing technologies | Prediction accuracy | Processing technologies | Revenue (MAPE) | Market share (MAE) | Bass model | LV model | Bass model without | LV model without | Modified Lotka– Volterra model |
| () | 26 | 1 | 99% | Old | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | New | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | () | 24 | 3 | 95% | Old | 19.50% | 24.28% | 1.61% | 1.28% | 0.23% | New | 12.36% | 15.73% | 1.61% | 2.26% | 0.23% | () | 20 | 7 | 90% | Old | 146.24% | 66.70% | 1.13% | 0.73% | 0.86% | New | 10.95% | 49.37% | 1.13% | 0.72% | 0.86% | () | 17 | 10 | 80% | Old | 715.37% | 32.35% | 1.03% | 0.87% | 1.04% | New | 53.94% | 56.53% | 1.03% | 1.64% | 1.04% | () | 16 | 11 | 70% | Old | 24745.25% | 36.08% | 7.80% | 0.87% | 1.10% | New | 49.51% | 60.09% | 7.80% | 1.37% | 1.10% | () | 16 | 11 | 60% | Old | 24745.25% | 36.08% | 7.80% | 0.87% | 1.12% | New | 49.51% | 60.09% | 7.80% | 1.07% | 1.12% | () | 14 | 13 | 50% | Old | 3223.27% | 39.47% | 40.26% | 1.41% | 1.14% | New | 24.15% | 59.19% | 40.27% | 1.52% | 1.14% |
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