Research Article
A Modified Lotka–Volterra Model for Diffusion and Substitution of Multigeneration DRAM Processing Technologies
Table 4
Prediction errors based on different data sets, models, and stages; 70-nanometer dividing line.
| | Stage | Number of
training periods | Number of
testing
periods | Earmarked market share
for new processing
technologies | Prediction accuracy | Processing
technologies | Revenue (MAPE) | Market share (MAE) | | Bass model | LV model | Bass model without | LV model without | Modified Lotka–
Volterra model |
| | () | 26 | 10 | 98% | Old | >105% | >105% | 1.41% | 0.07% | 0.06% | | New | 8.71% | 11.95% | 1.41% | 0.63% | 0.06% | | () | 23 | 13 | 95% | Old | >105% | >105% | 2.01% | 0.22% | 0.22% | | New | 13.96% | 19.27% | 2.01% | 0.71% | 0.22% | | () | 20 | 16 | 90% | Old | >105% | >105% | 1.72% | 0.35% | 0.41% | | New | 41.06% | 47.17% | 1.71% | 0.71% | 0.41% | | () | 17 | 19 | 80% | Old | >105% | >105% | 0.89% | 0.51% | 0.58% | | New | 55.57% | 59.06% | 0.89% | 0.73% | 0.58% | | () | 16 | 20 | 70% | Old | >105% | >105% | 9.51% | 0.77% | 0.62% | | New | 52.10% | 65.19% | 9.50% | 0.89% | 0.62% | | () | 16 | 20 | 60% | Old | >105% | >105% | 9.51% | 0.77% | 0.66% | | New | 52.10% | 65.19% | 9.50% | 0.89% | 0.66% | | () | 15 | 21 | 50% | Old | >105% | >105% | 29.83% | 0.75% | 0.68% | | New | 21.27% | 91.29% | 29.81% | 0.98% | 0.68% |
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