Ballistic Coefficient Estimation for Reentry Prediction of Rocket Bodies in Eccentric Orbits Based on TLE Data

Figure 4

Reentry predictions 30 days before reentry using an older or newer TLE for BC estimation and the same or a different state for BC estimation and reentry prediction. All reentry predictions start from the TLE at 30 days before reentry. BC estimation starts from the same TLE (orange and blue lines) or ends there and starts at a different TLE (yellow and green lines). The other TLE used of BC estimation is either an older or a newer TLE with respect to the TLE at 30 days. (The colors of the plots in (a) and the arrows in (b) correspond.)

(a) Cumulative distributions and 90%-confidence regions of reentry prediction errors using only an estimate for BC for 91 objects 30 days before reentry

(b) Schematic diagram of BC estimation