Research Article
A Small-Sample Adaptive Hybrid Model for Annual Electricity Consumption Forecasting
Table 1
Real electricity consumption data from 1991 to 2014, the forecasting results of ANN, GM(1, 1), and AHM, and the relative errors.
| | RD | ANN | RE | GM(1, 1) | RE | AHM | RE |
| 1991 | 677.49 | 664.85 | −1.87 | 685.29 | 1.15 | 678.26 | 0.11 | 1992 | 754.19 | 711.51 | −5.66 | 740.8 | −1.78 | 736.05 | −2.41 | 1993 | 836.43 | 798.96 | −4.48 | 812.09 | −2.91 | 814.48 | −2.62 | 1994 | 927.88 | 904.8 | −2.49 | 896.53 | −3.38 | 899.4 | −3.07 | 1995 | 1006.95 | 1022.21 | 1.52 | 995.72 | −1.12 | 996.31 | −1.06 | 1996 | 1079.36 | 1109.58 | 2.8 | 1096.34 | 1.57 | 1089.81 | 0.97 | 1997 | 1134.2 | 1170.05 | 3.16 | 1192.98 | 5.18 | 1179.6 | 4 | 1998 | 1157.7 | 1192.83 | 3.03 | 1273.03 | 9.96 | 1247.48 | 7.76 | 1999 | 1233.14 | 1175.92 | −4.64 | 1317.55 | 6.85 | 1262.31 | 2.37 | 2000 | 1368.48 | 1212.55 | −11.39 | 1364.19 | −0.31 | 1329.46 | −2.85 | 2001 | 1483.86 | 1350.35 | −9 | 1448.81 | −2.36 | 1448.71 | −2.37 | 2002 | 1633.15 | 1546.41 | −5.31 | 1554.46 | −4.82 | 1557.41 | −4.64 | 2003 | 1903.16 | 1768.33 | −7.08 | 1697.36 | −10.81 | 1696.14 | −10.88 | 2004 | 2197.14 | 2178.16 | −0.86 | 1944.53 | −11.5 | 1955.75 | −10.99 | 2005 | 2494.04 | 2640.28 | 5.86 | 2284.09 | −8.42 | 2317.58 | −7.08 | 2006 | 2858.8 | 2984.72 | 4.4 | 2684.31 | −6.1 | 2718.92 | −4.89 | 2007 | 3271.18 | 3324.53 | 1.63 | 3151.88 | −3.65 | 3176.78 | −2.89 | 2008 | 3454.14 | 3670.65 | 6.27 | 3665.48 | 6.12 | 3658.83 | 5.93 | 2009 | 3703.22 | 3666.77 | −0.98 | 4037.55 | 9.03 | 3906.75 | 5.5 | 2010 | 4193.45 | 3731.66 | −11.01 | 4347.19 | 3.67 | 4170.84 | −0.54 | 2011 | 4700.09 | 4154.32 | −11.61 | 4749.84 | 1.06 | 4649.36 | −1.08 | 2012 | 4976.26 | 4794.79 | −3.65 | 5217.07 | 4.84 | 5170.92 | 3.91 | 2013 | 5420.34 | 5180.37 | −4.43 | 5597.49 | 3.27 | 5471.63 | 0.95 | 2014 | 5638.37 | 5623.90 | −0.26 | 6020.41 | 6.78 | 5923.45 | 5.06 |
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