Research Article
Model Selection Approaches for Predicting Future Order Statistics from Type II Censored Data
Table 2
The corresponding bias and MSEs for different settings with model misspecification when the true distribution is SEV.
| | | | Assumed Distribution | | | | Normal distribution | Extreme Value distribution | | | | | | | | | | | bias | MSE | bias | MSE | bias | MSE | bias | MSE |
| 10 | 8 | 9 | 0.1225 | 0.1563 | -0.2965 | 0.1583 | -0.0669 | 0.0868 | -0.2969 | 0.1589 | | 7 | 8 | 0.0417 | 0.1109 | -0.2685 | 0.1365 | -0.0739 | 0.0793 | -0.2692 | 0.1376 | | 7 | 9 | 0.1659 | 0.2742 | -0.1233 | 0.1783 | -0.1131 | 0.1742 | -0.2539 | 0.2066 | | 6 | 7 | -0.0155 | 0.0969 | -0.2687 | 0.1355 | -0.0864 | 0.0797 | -0.2702 | 0.1364 | | 6 | 8 | 0.0710 | 0.2206 | -0.1725 | 0.1852 | -0.1287 | 0.1759 | -0.2635 | 0.2118 | | 6 | 9 | 0.2075 | 0.4628 | 0.0304 | 0.3333 | -0.1741 | 0.2954 | -0.2571 | 0.3099 | | 5 | 6 | -0.0532 | 0.1017 | -0.2767 | 0.1497 | -0.0913 | 0.0909 | -0.278 | 0.1516 | | 5 | 7 | -0.0037 | 0.2267 | -0.2144 | 0.2142 | -0.1548 | 0.202 | -0.2848 | 0.2367 | | 5 | 8 | 0.0846 | 0.4086 | -0.0544 | 0.3325 | -0.2104 | 0.3158 | -0.2858 | 0.3299 | | 5 | 9 | 0.2196 | 0.7279 | 0.0913 | 0.5969 | -0.2717 | 0.4812 | -0.3297 | 0.4914 |
| 20 | 16 | 18 | 0.3121 | 0.2071 | -0.0726 | 0.0498 | -0.0441 | 0.0543 | -0.1745 | 0.0747 | | 14 | 16 | 0.2053 | 0.1345 | -0.1028 | 0.0466 | -0.0455 | 0.0431 | -0.1658 | 0.0639 | | 14 | 18 | 0.3306 | 0.2389 | 0.1039 | 0.0949 | -0.0702 | 0.0961 | -0.1327 | 0.1031 | | 12 | 14 | 0.1424 | 0.1072 | -0.1198 | 0.0481 | -0.0445 | 0.0404 | -0.1646 | 0.0605 | | 12 | 16 | 0.2234 | 0.1702 | 0.0440 | 0.0791 | -0.0745 | 0.0868 | -0.133 | 0.0925 | | 12 | 18 | 0.3685 | 0.3154 | 0.2098 | 0.1901 | -0.0949 | 0.155 | -0.1402 | 0.1594 | | 10 | 12 | 0.0967 | 0.0948 | -0.1360 | 0.0561 | -0.0496 | 0.0454 | -0.1718 | 0.0667 | | 10 | 14 | 0.1624 | 0.1458 | 0.0156 | 0.0853 | -0.0789 | 0.0949 | -0.136 | 0.1015 | | 10 | 16 | 0.2667 | 0.2553 | 0.1467 | 0.1775 | -0.1032 | 0.1629 | -0.1417 | 0.1668 | | 10 | 18 | 0.4383 | 0.4968 | 0.3199 | 0.3774 | -0.1335 | 0.2516 | -0.1691 | 0.2546 |
| 30 | 24 | 27 | 0.5482 | 0.3543 | 0.0788 | 0.0330 | 0.0846 | 0.0522 | -0.0552 | 0.0298 | | 21 | 24 | 0.4351 | 0.2472 | 0.0270 | 0.0212 | 0.0717 | 0.0477 | -0.0573 | 0.0238 | | 21 | 27 | 0.5448 | 0.3562 | 0.2068 | 0.0821 | 0.082 | 0.0574 | -0.0062 | 0.0386 | | 18 | 21 | 0.3743 | 0.1980 | 0.0003 | 0.0188 | 0.0594 | 0.0452 | -0.0634 | 0.0228 | | 18 | 24 | 0.4215 | 0.2414 | 0.1135 | 0.0478 | 0.0588 | 0.0523 | -0.0222 | 0.0343 | | 18 | 27 | 0.5250 | 0.3420 | 0.2612 | 0.1198 | 0.065 | 0.064 | 0.0012 | 0.0518 | | 15 | 18 | 0.3146 | 0.1777 | -0.0232 | 0.0221 | 0.0308 | 0.0473 | -0.0821 | 0.0289 | | 15 | 21 | 0.3257 | 0.1857 | 0.0575 | 0.0392 | 0.0069 | 0.0597 | -0.0578 | 0.0447 | | 15 | 24 | 0.3688 | 0.2190 | 0.1409 | 0.0693 | -0.0092 | 0.0766 | -0.0588 | 0.0667 | | 15 | 27 | 0.4753 | 0.3279 | 0.2759 | 0.1478 | -0.0185 | 0.1067 | -0.0598 | 0.0998 |
| 40 | 32 | 36 | 0.5536 | 0.3486 | 0.1141 | 0.0342 | 0.0715 | 0.0397 | -0.0358 | 0.0221 | | 28 | 32 | 0.4471 | 0.2346 | 0.0564 | 0.0183 | 0.0675 | 0.0352 | -0.0346 | 0.0166 | | 28 | 36 | 0.5551 | 0.3485 | 0.2345 | 0.0847 | 0.0742 | 0.0422 | 0.0038 | 0.0289 | | 24 | 28 | 0.3923 | 0.1946 | 0.0293 | 0.0144 | 0.0611 | 0.0344 | -0.0361 | 0.0148 | | 24 | 32 | 0.4471 | 0.2334 | 0.1434 | 0.0436 | 0.0666 | 0.0374 | -0.0006 | 0.0234 | | 24 | 36 | 0.5584 | 0.3537 | 0.3026 | 0.1257 | 0.08 | 0.0454 | 0.0279 | 0.0349 | | 20 | 24 | 0.3732 | 0.1831 | 0.0142 | 0.0149 | 0.0575 | 0.0362 | -0.0384 | 0.0163 | | 20 | 28 | 0.3929 | 0.1921 | 0.0932 | 0.0327 | 0.0588 | 0.0364 | -0.0059 | 0.0229 | | 20 | 32 | 0.4455 | 0.2372 | 0.1958 | 0.0674 | 0.0678 | 0.0392 | 0.021 | 0.0289 | | 20 | 36 | 0.5526 | 0.3522 | 0.3374 | 0.1536 | 0.0762 | 0.0466 | 0.0362 | 0.0386 |
| 50 | 40 | 45 | 0.5605 | 0.3444 | 0.1386 | 0.0357 | 0.0686 | 0.0324 | -0.0204 | 0.018 | | 35 | 40 | 0.4484 | 0.2291 | 0.0717 | 0.0174 | 0.0611 | 0.028 | -0.0238 | 0.0127 | | 35 | 45 | 0.5600 | 0.3432 | 0.2491 | 0.0864 | 0.0698 | 0.0334 | 0.0086 | 0.0237 | | 30 | 35 | 0.3925 | 0.1859 | 0.0403 | 0.0127 | 0.0538 | 0.0282 | -0.0265 | 0.0117 | | 30 | 40 | 0.4469 | 0.2289 | 0.1560 | 0.0426 | 0.0617 | 0.0304 | 0.0069 | 0.0189 | | 30 | 45 | 0.5594 | 0.3493 | 0.3134 | 0.1271 | 0.0722 | 0.0363 | 0.0277 | 0.0283 | | 25 | 30 | 0.3710 | 0.1736 | 0.0242 | 0.0125 | 0.0499 | 0.0287 | -0.0276 | 0.0126 | | 25 | 35 | 0.3938 | 0.1869 | 0.1068 | 0.0296 | 0.0566 | 0.0303 | 0.0047 | 0.0184 | | 25 | 40 | 0.4441 | 0.2324 | 0.2015 | 0.0661 | 0.0612 | 0.0323 | 0.0217 | 0.0245 | | 25 | 45 | 0.5623 | 0.3468 | 0.3558 | 0.1555 | 0.0773 | 0.0377 | 0.0436 | 0.0318 |
| 60 | 48 | 54 | 0.5617 | 0.3438 | 0.1502 | 0.0374 | 0.0631 | 0.0267 | -0.0151 | 0.0148 | | 42 | 48 | 0.4475 | 0.2247 | 0.0801 | 0.0170 | 0.0562 | 0.024 | -0.0178 | 0.0107 | | 42 | 54 | 0.5629 | 0.3469 | 0.2619 | 0.0898 | 0.0666 | 0.0294 | 0.0139 | 0.0205 | | 36 | 42 | 0.3943 | 0.1802 | 0.0506 | 0.0119 | 0.0529 | 0.0232 | -0.017 | 0.0097 | | 36 | 48 | 0.4478 | 0.2224 | 0.1630 | 0.0418 | 0.0586 | 0.0246 | 0.0103 | 0.0159 | | 36 | 54 | 0.5620 | 0.3444 | 0.3243 | 0.1275 | 0.0689 | 0.0312 | 0.0306 | 0.0246 | | 30 | 36 | 0.3690 | 0.1660 | 0.0312 | 0.0109 | 0.0448 | 0.0238 | -0.0202 | 0.0102 | | 30 | 42 | 0.3904 | 0.1805 | 0.1103 | 0.0278 | 0.0503 | 0.0251 | 0.0059 | 0.0155 | | 30 | 48 | 0.4472 | 0.2239 | 0.2119 | 0.0634 | 0.0606 | 0.0266 | 0.0276 | 0.0204 | | 30 | 54 | 0.5610 | 0.3456 | 0.3606 | 0.1571 | 0.0701 | 0.0323 | 0.0405 | 0.0273 |
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