Forecasting the Direction of Short-Term Crude Oil Price Changes with Genetic-Fuzzy Information Distribution

Table 4

The out-of-sample forecasted and actual values.

The forecasted samples	Brent					WTI
	Price	Price forecasted	Return	Return forecasted	Direction consistency	Price	Price forecasted	Return	Return forecasted	Direction consistency
201	77.8100	77.1249	0.0112	0.0024	Y	69.84	70.7789	-0.0059	0.0075	N
202	77.5100	78.5606	-0.0039	0.0096	N	69.82	68.4365	-0.0003	-0.0203	Y
203	76.6800	75.4830	-0.0108	-0.0265	Y	68.69	69.7991	-0.0163	-0.0003	Y
204	75.6700	76.8643	-0.0133	0.0024	N	67.81	69.0274	-0.0129	0.0049	N
205	75.5500	75.8518	-0.0016	0.0024	N	67.73	67.8982	-0.0012	0.0013	N
206	76.7700	76.8376	0.0160	0.0169	Y	67.55	67.6894	-0.0027	-0.0006	Y
207	78.2200	76.9545	0.0187	0.0024	Y	69.29	67.9905	0.0254	0.0065	Y
208	80.0200	78.4080	0.0228	0.0024	Y	70.37	69.1516	0.0155	-0.002	N
209	77.6600	80.2123	-0.0299	0.0024	N	68.60	69.9840	-0.0255	-0.0055	Y
210	77.8700	77.8466	0.0027	0.0024	Y	68.98	68.6549	0.0055	0.0008	Y
211	78.2200	78.0571	0.0045	0.0024	Y	68.86	68.8491	-0.0017	-0.0019	Y
212	79.2500	78.4080	0.0131	0.0024	Y	69.87	68.9496	0.0146	0.0013	Y
213	79.4300	79.4404	0.0023	0.0024	Y	71.08	70.0309	0.0172	0.0023	Y
214	79.0300	79.3347	-0.0050	-0.0012	Y	70.77	70.8529	-0.0044	-0.0032	Y
215	78.9000	76.9632	-0.0016	-0.0265	Y	70.80	70.7983	0.0004	0.0004	Y
216	80.8900	79.0896	0.0249	0.0024	Y	73.23	70.6656	0.0337	-0.0019	N
217	82.2100	81.0844	0.0162	0.0024	Y	73.40	73.3033	0.0023	0.001	Y
218	81.8700	83.3107	-0.0041	0.0133	N	72.22	73.3780	-0.0162	-0.0003	Y
219	81.5400	81.7718	-0.0040	-0.0012	Y	72.18	71.7377	-0.0006	-0.0067	Y
220	82.7200	82.9297	0.0144	0.0169	Y	73.16	72.4548	0.0135	0.0038	Y

Y represents the consistent forecasting results and N is for inconsistent cases.