Dynamic Decomposition Analysis and Forecasting of Energy Consumption in Shanxi Province Based on VAR and GM (1, 1) Models

Table 6

Findings from variance decomposition.

Period	S.E.	Ln(EC)	Ln(P)	Ln(PGDP)	Ln(T)	Ln(URB)
1	0.064050	100.0000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000
2	0.093137	74.33587	5.534857	8.018522	2.012121	10.09863
3	0.107519	63.05512	6.506209	11.79173	2.052927	16.59401
4	0.114523	55.41137	6.884434	11.87527	4.203496	21.62543
5	0.118258	52.07434	7.156252	11.72533	4.369504	24.67458
6	0.120550	49.20459	7.509135	11.91758	5.478080	25.89061
7	0.122556	47.85810	7.998223	12.59354	5.520573	26.02956
8	0.124997	46.66049	8.603650	13.76629	5.519488	25.45009
9	0.128081	45.52651	9.262990	16.29813	4.498583	24.41379
10	0.131648	44.46939	9.910890	17.96772	4.472165	23.17983