Dynamic Decomposition Analysis and Forecasting of Energy Consumption in Shanxi Province Based on VAR and GM (1, 1) Models

Table 7

Prediction results from 1990 to 2015.

Year	Actual values	Predicted values	Percentage predicted error
1991	4802.33	4583.83	-4.55
1992	5034.36	4849.38	-3.67
1993	5472.54	5130.33	-6.25
1994	5200.32	5427.54	4.37
1995	6574.4	5741.98	-12.66
1996	6803.8	6074.63	-10.72
1997	6694.9	6426.56	-4.01
1998	6613.8	6798.87	2.80
1999	5573.19	7192.76	29.06
2000	5788.01	7609.46	31.47
2001	6966.97	8050.30	15.55
2002	8097.9	8516.68	5.17
2003	9037.51	9010.09	-0.30
2004	9550.56	9532.07	-0.19
2005	10117.06	10084.30	-0.32
2006	11196.06	10668.52	-4.71
2007	12135.45	11286.58	-6.99
2008	12472.37	11940.46	-4.26
2009	12885.85	12632.21	-1.97
2010	13820.47	13364.04	-3.30
2011	14992.59	14138.27	-5.70
2012	15803.31	14957.35	-5.35
2013	16427.08	15823.88	-3.67
2014	16325.19	16740.61	2.54
2015	15813.29	17710.46	12.00