Forecasting the Electricity Demand and Market Shares in Retail Electricity Market Based on System Dynamics and Markov Chain

Table 1

Parameter determination under different scenarios.

Scenarios	Consumption growth rate (%)	Investment growth rate (%)	Export growth rate (%)	Industrial restructuring rate (%)	Expected electric power ratio growth rate (%)	Nonfossil fuels share growth rate (%)
1	7.1	8.8		2.74	1.0	1.63
2	9.2	11.8	2.7	3.66	0.8	2.08
3	9.2	11.8	2.7	2.74	1.0	1.63
4	8.7	9.6	1.6	1.08	1.2	1.11
5	8.7	9.6	1.6	2.74	1.0	1.63
6	8.7	9.6	1.6	3.66	0.8	2.08

Note. Expected electric power ratio is short for the expected electric power to the end-use energy ratio.