Research Article
Fractional-Order Accumulative Linear Time-Varying Parameters Discrete Grey Forecasting Model
Table 3
The calculation results of different grey models.
| Year | Original value | DGM(1,1) model | TDGM(1, 1) model | FTDGM(1,1) model, r=0.85 | Simulation value | Relative error(%) | Simulation value | Relative error (%) | Simulation value | Relative error (%) |
| 2010 | 7.41 | 7.41 | 0 | 7.41 | 0 | 7.41 | 0 | 2011 | 8.49 | 8.65 | 1.91 | 8.49 | 0.05 | 8.49 | 0.00 | 2012 | 9.62 | 9.46 | 1.69 | 9.65 | 0.30 | 9.64 | 0.23 | 2013 | 10.44 | 10.34 | 0.98 | 10.37 | 0.71 | 10.33 | 1.07 | 2014 | 11.19 | 11.30 | 0.97 | 11.28 | 0.80 | 11.45 | 2.29 | 2015 | 12.35 | 12.35 | 0.00 | 12.30 | 0.42 | 11.97 | 3.06 | MAPE | | | 1.11 | | 0.46 | | 1.33 | 2016 | 13.1 | 13.50 | 3.05 | 13.46 | 2.73 | 13.22 | 0.92 | 2017 | 13.64 | 14.76 | 8.18 | 14.78 | 8.36 | 13.69 | 0.37 | MAPE | | | 5.61 | | 5.54 | | 0.64 |
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Source: China Statistical Yearbook.
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