Fractional-Order Accumulative Linear Time-Varying Parameters Discrete Grey Forecasting Model

Table 3

The calculation results of different grey models.

Year	Original value	DGM(1,1) model		TDGM(1, 1) model		FTDGM(1,1) model, r=0.85
		Simulation value	Relative error(%)	Simulation value	Relative error (%)	Simulation value	Relative error (%)
2010	7.41	7.41	0	7.41	0	7.41	0
2011	8.49	8.65	1.91	8.49	0.05	8.49	0.00
2012	9.62	9.46	1.69	9.65	0.30	9.64	0.23
2013	10.44	10.34	0.98	10.37	0.71	10.33	1.07
2014	11.19	11.30	0.97	11.28	0.80	11.45	2.29
2015	12.35	12.35	0.00	12.30	0.42	11.97	3.06
MAPE			1.11		0.46		1.33
2016	13.1	13.50	3.05	13.46	2.73	13.22	0.92
2017	13.64	14.76	8.18	14.78	8.36	13.69	0.37
MAPE			5.61		5.54		0.64

Source: China Statistical Yearbook.