Research Article
Monthly Electricity Consumption Forecasting Method Based on X12 and STL Decomposition Model in an Integrated Energy System
Table 6
Assessment of monthly electricity consumption forecasting results for 2017.
| Month | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | The proposed method | Relative error (%) | Relative error (%) | Relative error (%) | Relative error (%) |
| 1 | −29.59 | −4.80 | −5.19 | 3.03 | 2 | 12.39 | 18.95 | −2.99 | −3.86 | 3 | 12.15 | −5.29 | −12.09 | 2.26 | 4 | −27.11 | 6.19 | −3.99 | 3.10 | 5 | −4.39 | 2.24 | 5.39 | −5.36 | 6 | −6.17 | 5.13 | 7.95 | −5.77 | 7 | −0.43 | 5.46 | 5.05 | −4.98 | 8 | 13.87 | 13.75 | 2.43 | −2.39 | 9 | 12.86 | 8.10 | 0.48 | 3.87 | 10 | −0.87 | 7.56 | 4.88 | 4.61 | 11 | −14.58 | 23.37 | 11.75 | 6.71 | 12 | −9.89 | 14.60 | 4.74 | 2.11 |
| MAPE | 12.03 | 9.62 | 5.58 | 4.00 | MAE | 127198.42 | 92195.00 | 55408.53 | 39624.48 | RMSE | 176048.17 | 111642.10 | 63829.84 | 43118.85 |
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