Estimation of Tail Risk and Moments Using Option Prices with a Novel Pricing Model under a Distorted Lognormal Distribution

<div>Implied <i>q</i> with different <svg height="9.49473pt" id="M129" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 7.30254 9.49473" width="7.30254pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M529 97L508 118C475 75 449 58 438 58C428 58 421 66 415 104C393 234 374 403 364 496C345 670 307 712 254 712C220 712 174 691 153 669L161 645C176 653 194 658 206 658C237 658 261 640 278 562C287 522 290 483 293 434C223 269 110 105 23 9L32 -12C59 -6 85 0 108 7C152 64 251 252 300 366C307 297 315 221 337 82C346 24 363 -12 393 -12C425 -12 475 13 529 97Z"></path></g></svg> for all maturities.</div>

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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Figure 9

Figure 9: Estimation of Tail Risk and Moments Using Option Prices with a Novel Pricing Model under a Distorted Lognormal Distribution 