The Bühlmann–Straub Estimation of Claim Means in Random B-F Reserve Model

Table 3

Comparison of reserve estimates for the three methods.

Policies	Prior estimates	Estimates of ultimate loss				Estimates of loss reserves
	0	11653101	11148124	11148124	11148124	0	0	0
1	11367306	10664316	10663318	10661418	16124	13226.27	15126.29
2	10962965	10662749	10662008	10661501	26998	25749.54	26257.45
3	10616762	9761643	9758606	9759366	37575	35298.42	34538.47
4	11044881	9882350	9872218	9886485	95434	99568.73	85301.62
5	11480700	10113777	10092247	10086401	178024	150648.41	156494.25
6	11413572	9623328	9568143	9575260	341305	293238.44	286092.48
7	11126527	8830301	8705378	8733654	574089	477442.86	449163.52
8	10986548	8967375	8691971	8791079	1318646	1142349.78	1043238.98
9	11618437	10443953	9626383	9805519	4768384	4129950.96	3950811.42
				Total	7356579	6367473.41	6047024.48