Research Article
An Improved Prediction Model Combining Inverse Exponential Smoothing and Markov Chain
Table 3
Fitting values of model I and model II.
| Year | Actual value | Model I | Absolute error | Relative error (%) | Model II | Absolute error | Relative error (%) |
| 1990 | 1875.57 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1991 | 1989.42 | 1851.00 | 138.42 | 6.96 | 1444.22 | 545.20 | 27.40 | 1992 | 2130.22 | 1958.14 | 172.08 | 8.08 | 1704.37 | 425.85 | 19.99 | 1993 | 2645.63 | 2164.25 | 481.38 | 18.20 | 2112.12 | 533.51 | 20.17 | 1994 | 2833.00 | 2825.12 | 7.88 | 0.28 | 2774.19 | 58.81 | 2.08 | 1995 | 3273.12 | 3160.86 | 112.26 | 3.43 | 3238.32 | 34.80 | 1.06 | 1996 | 3588.35 | 3668.46 | 80.11 | 2.23 | 3799.97 | 211.62 | 5.90 | 1997 | 4354.92 | 4042.42 | 312.50 | 7.18 | 4115.12 | 239.80 | 5.51 | 1998 | 5106.19 | 4899.57 | 206.62 | 4.05 | 4979.33 | 126.86 | 2.48 | 1999 | 6274.99 | 5825.04 | 449.95 | 7.17 | 5885.66 | 389.33 | 6.20 | 2000 | 6469.72 | 7207.07 | 737.35 | 11.40 | 7094.16 | 624.44 | 9.65 | 2001 | 7029.45 | 7458.92 | 429.47 | 6.11 | 7382.91 | 353.46 | 5.03 | 2002 | 7216.66 | 7833.70 | 617.04 | 8.55 | 7724.44 | 507.78 | 7.04 | 2003 | 7739.66 | 7837.46 | 97.80 | 1.26 | 7685.59 | 54.07 | 0.70 | 2004 | 9648.66 | 8200.85 | 1447.81 | 15.01 | 8307.23 | 1341.43 | 13.90 | 2005 | 10350.30 | 10365.27 | 14.97 | 0.14 | 10533.85 | 183.55 | 1.77 | 2006 | 11019.10 | 11456.27 | 437.17 | 3.97 | 11537.29 | 518.19 | 4.70 | 2007 | 11904.20 | 12113.08 | 208.88 | 1.75 | 12087.04 | 182.84 | 1.54 | 2008 | 15175.60 | 12912.67 | 2262.93 | 14.91 | 13167.58 | 2008.02 | 13.23 | 2009 | 19932.90 | 16628.87 | 3304.03 | 16.58 | 16945.34 | 2987.56 | 14.99 | 2010 | 21456.00 | 22717.92 | 1261.92 | 5.88 | 23371.58 | 1915.58 | 8.93 | 2011 | 23733.80 | 25095.92 | 1362.12 | 5.74 | 25232.82 | 1499.02 | 6.32 | 2012 | 25730.60 | 27141.58 | 1410.98 | 5.48 | 27004.24 | 1273.64 | 4.95 |
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