An Improved Prediction Model Combining Inverse Exponential Smoothing and Markov Chain

Table 3

Fitting values of model I and model II.

Year	Actual value	Model I	Absolute error	Relative error (%)	Model II	Absolute error	Relative error (%)
1990	1875.57	—	—	—	—	—	—
1991	1989.42	1851.00	138.42	6.96	1444.22	545.20	27.40
1992	2130.22	1958.14	172.08	8.08	1704.37	425.85	19.99
1993	2645.63	2164.25	481.38	18.20	2112.12	533.51	20.17
1994	2833.00	2825.12	7.88	0.28	2774.19	58.81	2.08
1995	3273.12	3160.86	112.26	3.43	3238.32	34.80	1.06
1996	3588.35	3668.46	80.11	2.23	3799.97	211.62	5.90
1997	4354.92	4042.42	312.50	7.18	4115.12	239.80	5.51
1998	5106.19	4899.57	206.62	4.05	4979.33	126.86	2.48
1999	6274.99	5825.04	449.95	7.17	5885.66	389.33	6.20
2000	6469.72	7207.07	737.35	11.40	7094.16	624.44	9.65
2001	7029.45	7458.92	429.47	6.11	7382.91	353.46	5.03
2002	7216.66	7833.70	617.04	8.55	7724.44	507.78	7.04
2003	7739.66	7837.46	97.80	1.26	7685.59	54.07	0.70
2004	9648.66	8200.85	1447.81	15.01	8307.23	1341.43	13.90
2005	10350.30	10365.27	14.97	0.14	10533.85	183.55	1.77
2006	11019.10	11456.27	437.17	3.97	11537.29	518.19	4.70
2007	11904.20	12113.08	208.88	1.75	12087.04	182.84	1.54
2008	15175.60	12912.67	2262.93	14.91	13167.58	2008.02	13.23
2009	19932.90	16628.87	3304.03	16.58	16945.34	2987.56	14.99
2010	21456.00	22717.92	1261.92	5.88	23371.58	1915.58	8.93
2011	23733.80	25095.92	1362.12	5.74	25232.82	1499.02	6.32
2012	25730.60	27141.58	1410.98	5.48	27004.24	1273.64	4.95