Modelling Residential Building Costs in New Zealand: A Time-Series Transfer Function Approach

Table 1

Univariate ARIMA models for cost series.

Cost series	Model	Parameters	Estimate	t-Statistics	Ljung–Box
					Statistics	df	value
HBC1	ARIMA(0,1,3)(0,1,1)4		0.335	2.379	24.77	14	0.375
			−0.297	−2.022
			0.447	3.177
	R^2 = 0.96, RMSE = 35.60, MAPE = 1.644, MAE = 24.95, BIC = 7.453
HBC2	ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,0,2)4		−0.394	−2.848	6.035	16	0.988
	R^2 = 0.943, RMSE = 61.76, MAPE = 2.177, MAE = 37.41, BIC = 8.392
HBC3	ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,0,0)4		0.594	5.483	8.168	17	0.963
	R^2 = 0.969, RMSE = 45.75, MAPE = 1.576, MAE = 28.92, BIC = 7.719