Expanded SEIRCQ Model Applied to COVID-19 Epidemic Control Strategy Design and Medical Infrastructure Planning

<div>Prognostics of death under mild and severe isolation measures followed by simultaneous application of confinement of susceptible (<svg height="11.9453pt" id="M200" style="vertical-align:-3.309401pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 63.0954 11.9453" width="63.0954pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M610 18C585 26 567 34 540 68C517 97 499 128 476 171C452 215 425 276 413 304C496 332 570 394 570 494C570 555 545 595 509 619S419 650 364 650H139L133 622C216 615 219 612 203 527L129 132C112 40 105 36 23 28L17 0H279L285 28C199 34 194 40 211 132L239 284H284C320 284 334 275 351 236C374 182 394 140 420 93C459 23 495 -1 592 -8H600L610 18ZM480 485C480 424 449 372 403 342C374 323 338 316 293 316H245L291 562C296 589 301 601 311 608S337 618 358 618C432 618 480 575 480 485Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.086,3.132)"><path d="M614 175C564 76 510 21 408 21C256 21 146 149 146 336C146 488 235 629 402 629C510 629 570 586 597 480L626 488C620 541 614 582 606 638C578 643 510 665 429 665C206 665 44 527 44 316C44 157 153 -15 402 -15C474 -15 558 5 586 11C604 45 629 119 643 165L614 175Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,14.138,3.132)"><path d="M719 650H483V622C553 619 576 606 581 560C585 532 588 487 588 394V148H585L167 650H20V622C67 618 88 610 109 585C127 562 129 557 129 484V264C129 173 126 124 123 93C118 44 92 31 35 28V0H272V28C204 32 181 44 176 95C173 124 170 172 170 264V515H172L598 -9H629V394C629 487 631 532 635 563C639 606 663 619 719 622V650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,20.899,3.132)"><path d="M493 503C489 551 484 614 483 650H43V622C120 616 128 611 128 525V126C128 40 120 34 40 28V0H312V28C221 34 213 40 213 126V307H316C407 307 412 296 424 227H453V420H424C412 355 407 346 316 346H213V584C213 613 216 616 246 616H322C398 616 419 607 436 579C449 559 455 539 464 499L493 503Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.909,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,41.172,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,47.412,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,50.376,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,56.616,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g></svg> and <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.2715pt" id="M201" style="vertical-align:-3.30938pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.96212 52.9435 12.2715" width="52.9435pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M620 675H597C578 656 570 650 541 650H144C112 650 104 653 94 675H72C59 618 42 552 23 493L53 491C71 534 88 564 105 585C124 608 144 615 238 615H290L197 121C182 40 174 34 88 28L82 0H361L367 28C275 34 266 38 281 121L374 615H441C522 615 543 608 553 583C562 560 566 531 565 493L597 494C603 551 612 629 620 675Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.176,3.132)"><path d="M614 175C564 76 510 21 408 21C256 21 146 149 146 336C146 488 235 629 402 629C510 629 570 586 597 480L626 488C620 541 614 582 606 638C578 643 510 665 429 665C206 665 44 527 44 316C44 157 153 -15 402 -15C474 -15 558 5 586 11C604 45 629 119 643 165L614 175Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,13.228,3.132)"><path d="M719 650H483V622C553 619 576 606 581 560C585 532 588 487 588 394V148H585L167 650H20V622C67 618 88 610 109 585C127 562 129 557 129 484V264C129 173 126 124 123 93C118 44 92 31 35 28V0H272V28C204 32 181 44 176 95C173 124 170 172 170 264V515H172L598 -9H629V394C629 487 631 532 635 563C639 606 663 619 719 622V650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,19.989,3.132)"><path d="M493 503C489 551 484 614 483 650H43V622C120 616 128 611 128 525V126C128 40 120 34 40 28V0H312V28C221 34 213 40 213 126V307H316C407 307 412 296 424 227H453V420H424C412 355 407 346 316 346H213V584C213 613 216 616 246 616H322C398 616 419 607 436 579C449 559 455 539 464 499L493 503Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,28.999,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,40.262,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,46.502,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g></svg>)</span> and quarantine of infected (<span class="nowrap"><svg height="13.2926pt" id="M202" style="vertical-align:-4.6567pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 63.1411 13.2926" width="63.1411pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M610 18C585 26 567 34 540 68C517 97 499 128 476 171C452 215 425 276 413 304C496 332 570 394 570 494C570 555 545 595 509 619S419 650 364 650H139L133 622C216 615 219 612 203 527L129 132C112 40 105 36 23 28L17 0H279L285 28C199 34 194 40 211 132L239 284H284C320 284 334 275 351 236C374 182 394 140 420 93C459 23 495 -1 592 -8H600L610 18ZM480 485C480 424 449 372 403 342C374 323 338 316 293 316H245L291 562C296 589 301 601 311 608S337 618 358 618C432 618 480 575 480 485Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.086,3.132)"><path d="M720 -138C627 -96 538 -41 476 2C594 39 703 153 703 331C703 532 552 665 384 665C170 665 44 499 44 315C44 215 87 129 147 73C211 11 298 -11 355 -14C476 -99 554 -136 584 -144S664 -160 712 -159L720 -138ZM348 25C231 49 146 172 146 342C146 533 249 629 360 629C497 629 601 510 601 302C601 142 523 51 443 28C434 34 425 41 416 47L348 25Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,14.783,3.132)"><path d="M631 18C609 24 585 35 559 65C534 91 514 117 478 169C448 214 406 281 389 313C462 346 516 399 516 485C516 545 490 590 449 616C412 641 363 650 290 650H42V622C120 615 128 612 128 527V125C128 40 120 34 38 28V0H300V28C221 34 212 40 212 125V284H244C295 284 312 272 329 244C359 195 395 133 430 84C475 19 516 -3 592 -7C603 -8 615 -8 627 -8L631 18ZM212 316V563C212 591 215 602 223 607C231 613 248 617 277 617C352 617 423 577 423 469C423 415 407 375 368 345C343 324 310 316 260 316H212Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,20.142,3.132)"><path d="M592 498C586 556 582 629 581 675H560C545 656 537 650 510 650H115C87 650 74 652 60 675H40C38 620 33 555 28 495H57C69 539 77 568 89 585C102 607 122 616 205 616H267V123C267 44 259 34 168 28V0H454V28C360 34 352 44 352 123V616H422C498 616 514 608 531 584C542 568 552 543 562 495L592 498Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.954,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,41.217,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,47.457,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,50.421,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,56.661,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> <span class="nowrap"><svg height="13.6188pt" id="M203" style="vertical-align:-4.65668pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.96212 52.9892 13.6188" width="52.9892pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M620 675H597C578 656 570 650 541 650H144C112 650 104 653 94 675H72C59 618 42 552 23 493L53 491C71 534 88 564 105 585C124 608 144 615 238 615H290L197 121C182 40 174 34 88 28L82 0H361L367 28C275 34 266 38 281 121L374 615H441C522 615 543 608 553 583C562 560 566 531 565 493L597 494C603 551 612 629 620 675Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.176,3.132)"><path d="M720 -138C627 -96 538 -41 476 2C594 39 703 153 703 331C703 532 552 665 384 665C170 665 44 499 44 315C44 215 87 129 147 73C211 11 298 -11 355 -14C476 -99 554 -136 584 -144S664 -160 712 -159L720 -138ZM348 25C231 49 146 172 146 342C146 533 249 629 360 629C497 629 601 510 601 302C601 142 523 51 443 28C434 34 425 41 416 47L348 25Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,13.873,3.132)"><path d="M631 18C609 24 585 35 559 65C534 91 514 117 478 169C448 214 406 281 389 313C462 346 516 399 516 485C516 545 490 590 449 616C412 641 363 650 290 650H42V622C120 615 128 612 128 527V125C128 40 120 34 38 28V0H300V28C221 34 212 40 212 125V284H244C295 284 312 272 329 244C359 195 395 133 430 84C475 19 516 -3 592 -7C603 -8 615 -8 627 -8L631 18ZM212 316V563C212 591 215 602 223 607C231 613 248 617 277 617C352 617 423 577 423 469C423 415 407 375 368 345C343 324 310 316 260 316H212Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,19.232,3.132)"><path d="M592 498C586 556 582 629 581 675H560C545 656 537 650 510 650H115C87 650 74 652 60 675H40C38 620 33 555 28 495H57C69 539 77 568 89 585C102 607 122 616 205 616H267V123C267 44 259 34 168 28V0H454V28C360 34 352 44 352 123V616H422C498 616 514 608 531 584C542 568 552 543 562 495L592 498Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.044,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,40.307,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,46.547,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> and <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.2715pt" id="M204" style="vertical-align:-3.30938pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.96212 42.9808 12.2715" width="42.9808pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M620 675H597C578 656 570 650 541 650H144C112 650 104 653 94 675H72C59 618 42 552 23 493L53 491C71 534 88 564 105 585C124 608 144 615 238 615H290L197 121C182 40 174 34 88 28L82 0H361L367 28C275 34 266 38 281 121L374 615H441C522 615 543 608 553 583C562 560 566 531 565 493L597 494C603 551 612 629 620 675Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.176,3.132)"><path d="M495 163C480 117 462 85 444 65C421 39 387 34 332 34C290 34 256 36 236 47C218 57 213 77 213 131V526C213 612 222 616 301 622V650H40V622C122 616 128 611 128 526V126C128 41 120 34 36 28V0H489C498 31 519 126 525 157L495 163Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.072,3.132)"><path d="M303 0V28C221 34 213 39 213 125V525C213 610 221 616 303 622V650H38V622C120 616 128 610 128 525V125C128 40 120 34 38 28V0H303Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,15.065,3.132)"><path d="M614 175C564 76 510 21 408 21C256 21 146 149 146 336C146 488 235 629 402 629C510 629 570 586 597 480L626 488C620 541 614 582 606 638C578 643 510 665 429 665C206 665 44 527 44 316C44 157 153 -15 402 -15C474 -15 558 5 586 11C604 45 629 119 643 165L614 175Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.299,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,36.562,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g></svg>)</span> individuals.</div>

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

fig16

Figure 16

Figure 16: Expanded SEIRCQ Model Applied to COVID-19 Epidemic Control Strategy Design and Medical Infrastructure Planning 