Financial Imbalance Risk and Its Control Strategy of China’s Pension Insurance Contribution Rate Reduction

Table 1

Financial balance of the UEBPI fund in baseline scenario (unit: billion RMB).

Year	θ = 19%				θ = 16%
	It	Et	CSt	ASt	It	Et	CSt	ASt
2020	4965.61	5295.18	−329.57	5296.60	4413.87	5295.18	−881.31	4744.86
2021	5252.18	5821.01	−568.82	4886.67	4668.61	5821.01	−1152.40	3734.81
2022	5548.84	6335.77	−786.93	4246.34	4932.30	6335.77	−1403.47	2443.38
2023	5856.37	6972.37	−1116.00	3257.72	5205.66	6972.37	−1766.71	749.97
2024	6144.44	7746.27	−1601.82	1753.64	5461.73	7746.27	−2284.54	−1512.07
2025	6461.68	8484.21	−2022.54	−216.29	5743.71	8484.21	−2740.50	−4252.57
2030	8229.43	12769.50	−4540.08	−17527.33	7315.05	12769.50	−5454.46	−25723.88
2035	10438.51	18216.50	−7777.99	−50020.81	9278.68	18216.50	−8937.82	−63476.43
2040	13042.81	24724.94	−11682.13	−100086.68	11593.61	24724.94	−13131.33	−120181.58
2045	16017.97	32264.41	−16246.44	−171920.97	14238.20	32264.41	−18026.22	−200229.55
2050	18299.96	41209.25	−22909.29	−272709.16	16266.63	41209.25	−24942.62	−310667.63
2055	20407.20	49539.54	−29132.35	−406713.52	18139.73	49539.54	−31399.81	−455516.57
2060	22387.59	56664.13	−34276.54	−568681.59	19900.08	56664.13	−36764.05	−629455.86