Compound Grey-Logistic Model and Its Application

Table 6

Patent grants in Jiangsu province, forecast value and forecast accuracy evaluation.

Year	Actual data	Insert data	Complete series	Grey forecast	APE (%)	Logistic forecast	APE (%)	Grey-logistic forecast	APE (%)
2000	6432		6432
2001		19627	19627	56863	189.72	7417	62.21
2002		32822	32822	62940	91.76	16970	48.30	62940	91.76
2003		46017	46017	69665	51.39	35720	22.38	69665	51.39
2004		59212	59212	77110	30.23	64296	8.59	77110	30.23
2005		72407	72407	85350	17.88	103317	42.69	85350	17.88
2006		85602	85602	94471	10.36	153369	79.16	94471	10.36
2007		98797	98797	104566	5.84	214983	117.60	104566	5.84
2008		111992	111992	115741	3.35	288599	157.70	115741	3.35
2009		125187	125187	128109	2.33	374527	199.17	128109	2.33
2010	138382	138382	138382	141799	2.47	472891	241.73	141799	2.47
2011		160763	160763	156952	2.37	583557	262.99	156952	2.37
2012		183144	183144	173724	5.14	706052	285.52	173724	5.14
2013		205525	205525	192289	6.44	839445	308.44	192289	6.44
2014		227906	227906	212837	6.61	982215	330.97	212837	6.61
2015	250290	250287	250290	235582	5.88	1132072	352.30	235582	5.88
2016	231033		231033	260757	12.87	1285741	456.52	260757	12.87
2017	227187		227187	288622	27.04	1438688	533.26	288622	27.04
2018	306996		306996	319465	4.06	1584785	416.22	319465	4.06
2019	314395		314395	353604	12.47	1715882	445.77	353604	12.47
MAPE					25.70		230.08		16.58
H(π)	0.774	1.101	1.204	1.217		1.094		1.200