Compound Grey-Logistic Model and Its Application

Table 8

Forecasting results of different models.

Time (month/year)	Actual data (%)	Grey forecast (%)	Logistic forecast (%)	Grey-logistic forecast (%)	AR(1) forecast (%)	ARMA (1, 1) forecast (%)
1/18	6.99
2/18	5.41	5.87	6.24	5.87	7.89	6.46
3/18	5.68	5.93	6.14	5.89	7.53	6.37
4/18	5.38	5.95	6.03	5.91	7.59	6.32
5/18	5.61	5.97	5.94	5.94	7.52	6.30
6/18	5.82	5.99	5.84	5.96	7.57	6.29
7/18	6.67	6.01	5.75	5.99	7.62	6.28
8/18	7.12	6.03	5.66	6.01	7.81	6.28
9/18	6.31	6.05	5.57	6.03	7.92	6.27
10/18	5.68	6.07	5.49	6.06	7.73	6.27
11/18	5.42	6.09	5.41	6.08	7.59	6.27
12/18	5.65	6.11	5.33	6.10	7.53	6.27
1/19	5.26	6.13	5.25	6.13	7.58	6.27
2/19	6.39	6.15	5.18	6.15	7.49	6.27
3/19	5.69	6.17	5.10	6.17	7.75	6.27
4/19	6.96	6.19	5.03	6.19	7.59	6.27
5/19	6.06	6.21	4.96	6.21	7.88	6.27
6/19	5.83	6.23	4.90	6.24	7.68	6.27
7/19	6.74	6.25	4.83	6.26	7.62	6.27
8/19	7.42	6.27	4.77	6.28	7.83	6.27
9/19	7.95	6.29	4.71	6.30	7.98	6.27
10/19	7.60	6.31	4.65	6.32	8.10	6.27
11/19	7.73	6.33	4.59	6.34	8.03	6.27
12/19	5.80	6.35	4.53	6.36	8.05	6.27
1/20	7.09	6.37	4.48	6.38	7.62	6.27
2/20	4.07	6.39	4.42	6.40	7.91	6.27
3/20	6.65	6.41	4.37	6.42	7.22	6.27
4/20	5.71	6.43	4.32	6.44	7.81	6.27
5/20	6.34	6.45	4.27	6.46	7.60	6.27
6/20	6.22	6.47	4.22	6.48	7.74	6.27
7/20	5.59	6.49	4.17	6.50	7.71	6.27
8/20	6.49	6.51	4.12	6.52	7.57	6.27
9/20	6.88	6.53	4.07	6.54	7.77	6.27
10/20	6.94	6.55	4.03	6.56	7.86	6.27
11/20	6.96	6.57	3.98	6.57	7.88	6.27
12/20	5.66	6.60	3.94	6.59	7.88	6.27
1/21	6.55	6.62	3.90	6.61	7.58	6.27
Mean	6.28	6.26	4.89	6.26	7.72	6.28
Std. deviation	0.80	0.21	0.69	0.22	0.19	0.03