Integration of Interpretive Structural Modeling with Fuzzy Bayesian Network for Risk Assessment of Tunnel Collapse

Table 12

Sensitivity analysis result.

Risk factor	Probability of occurrence (%)	Original collapse probability (%)	New collapse probability (%)	Probability change (%)
Excessive construction disturbance	21.2	17.7	31.1	13.4
Insufficient support strength	15.4	17.7	30.2	12.5
Improper construction measures or poor quality	14.0	17.7	20.3	2.6
Unreasonable design	7.7	17.7	19.9	2.2
Untimely support	14.6	17.7	18.7	1.0
Severe bias	10.8	17.7	18.6	0.9
Irregular construction	23.4	17.7	18.5	0.8
Low level of management awareness	16.0	17.7	18.3	0.6
Poor stability of surrounding rock	65.1	17.7	18.0	0.3
Special poor geological conditions	26.5	17.7	18.0	0.3
Failure of monitoring and measurement standards	6.8	17.7	17.8	0.1
Atmospheric rainfall	27.1	17.7	17.8	0.1
Shallow buried	15.4	17.7	17.7	0.0
Mutation of geological conditions	7.1	17.7	17.7	0.0
Groundwater seepage	32.4	17.7	17.7	0.0
Inaccurate geological survey	15.7	17.7	17.7	0.0
Inadequate advance geological forecast	4.4	17.7	17.7	0.0