A LASSO-Based Prediction Model for Child Influenza Epidemics: A Case Study of Shanghai, China
Table 1
Influenza estimation accuracies of different models. The best performance corresponding to each accuracy metric in each time period is highlighted in boldface. The reported RMSE, MAE, and MAPE scores are relative to the absolute error of the naive method, i.e., the ratio of the error of a given method to that of the naive method. The numbers in parentheses denote the absolute errors of the naive method.
Metric
Whole period (week 1, 2017–week 20, 2020)
Off-season
Regular flu seasons (week 40 to week 20 of the following year)
2016–20171
2017–2018
2018–2019
2019–2020
RMSE
LASSO
0.899
0.872
1.038
0.972
0.910
0.838
ARIMA
0.993
1.201
0.979
1.066
0.992
0.863
RF
1.167
0.975
1.576
1.281
1.007
1.206
OLS
1.226
1.290
2.604
1.270
0.934
0.875
LSTM
1.356
1.280
1.746
1.642
1.043
1.384
Naive
1 (1822.322)
1 (1232.904)
1 (1496.251)
1 (1561.335)
1 (2217.054)
1 (2546.548)
MAE
LASSO
1.037
0.928
1.070
1.081
1.051
1.088
ARIMA
1.135
1.295
1.051
1.082
1.217
0.976
RF
1.268
1.056
1.634
1.349
1.189
1.329
OLS
1.461
1.376
2.882
1.440
1.148
1.202
LSTM
1.528
1.481
1.639
1.760
1.362
1.495
Naive
1 (1158.927)
1 (872.169)
1 (1124.75)
1 (1154.000)
1 (1332.273)
1 (1523.909)
MAPE
LASSO
1.412
1.001
0.999
1.136
1.074
2.076
ARIMA
1.216
1.269
1.070
1.066
1.218
1.288
RF
1.450
1.137
1.443
1.277
1.168
1.860
OLS
1.839
1.434
2.619
1.431
1.149
2.357
LSTM
1.555
1.522
1.436
1.981
1.281
1.566
Naive
1 (7.963)
1 (5.489)
1 (7.582)
1 (6.248)
1 (7.135)
1 (15.159)
Correlation
LASSO
0.965
0.936
0.826
0.956
0.844
0.985
ARIMA
0.957
0.893
0.860
0.941
0.829
0.981
RF
0.941
0.920
0.758
0.932
0.800
0.963
OLS
0.933
0.876
0.145
0.916
0.838
0.984
LSTM
0.916
0.862
0.402
0.892
0.803
0.950
Naive
0.956
0.916
0.847
0.944
0.818
0.975
Correlation of increment
LASSO
0.475
0.858
0.322
0.241
0.282
0.871
ARIMA
0.403
0.775
0.302
0.292
0.284
0.781
RF
0.368
0.869
0.268
0.138
0.117
0.700
OLS
0.358
0.707
−0.198
0.269
0.302
0.788
LSTM
0.357
0.816
−0.202
0.086
0.478
0.582
Naive
0.459
0.864
0.353
0.312
0.273
0.790
As the start of the estimation time duration is the first week of 2017, the regular flu season of 2016–2017 was considered to be from week 1, 2017, to week 20, 2017.
