Using ARIMA-GARCH Model to Analyze Fluctuation Law of International Oil Price

Table 4

MAPE and RSME.

Date	Actual value	ARIMA predicted value	ARIMA relative error (%)	ARIMA-GARCH predicted value	ARIMA-GARCH relative error (%)
2021/12/9	72.36	71.9682748	0.541	72.26946	0.125
2021/12/10	70.94	71.97088379	1.453	70.91556	0.034
2021/12/13	71.67	71.9708005	0.420	71.64392	0.036
2021/12/14	71.29	71.97080316	0.955	71.26396	0.037
2021/12/15	70.73	71.97080307	1.754	70.70396	0.037
2021/12/16	70.87	71.97080308	1.553	70.84396	0.037
2021/12/17	72.38	71.97080308	0.565	72.35396	0.036
2021/12/20	70.86	71.97080308	1.568	70.83396	0.037
2021/12/21	68.23	71.97080308	5.483	68.20396	0.038
2021/12/22	71.12	71.97080308	1.196	71.09396	0.037
MAPE	1.549%			0.045%
RMSE	1.032			0.071