Research Article
Functional Data Approach for Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting
Table 4
Hourly forecasting errors for the electricity demand using FAR (p), FARX (p), and AR (7) models.
| Hour | Errors | FAR (p) | FARX (p) | AR (7) |
| 1 | MAE | 959.445 | 703.908 | 1148.178 | MAPE | 4.622 | 1.962 | 6.883 | RMSE | 1298.152 | 896.126 | 1570.79 |
| 2 | MAE | 882.311 | 651.484 | 1096.252 | MAPE | 4.3078 | 1.837 | 8.107 | RMSE | 1157.836 | 856.842 | 1586.941 |
| 3 | MAE | 972.551 | 694.933 | 1079.363 | MAPE | 5.335 | 1.969 | 10.089 | RMSE | 1231.743 | 919.493 | 1563.431 |
| 4 | MAE | 1239.432 | 723.064 | 1813.955 | MAPE | 6.248 | 2.044 | 10.190 | RMSE | 1271.563 | 966.133 | 1912.950 |
| 5 | MAE | 1006.819 | 770.735 | 1518.308 | MAPE | 7.269 | 2.146 | 8.461 | RMSE | 1484.161 | 1122.134 | 1545.184 |
| 6 | MAE | 907.918 | 877.436 | 1068.968 | MAPE | 7.896 | 3.376 | 10.272 | RMSE | 1643.787 | 1162.124 | 1980.238 |
| 7 | MAE | 1432.725 | 1198.624 | 1972.094 | MAPE | 7.119 | 3.015 | 9.938 | RMSE | 1786.485 | 1630.914 | 2363.881 |
| 8 | MAE | 1693.734 | 1428.419 | 2078.932 | MAPE | 6.174 | 3.4 | 7.917 | RMSE | 2299.992 | 1677.427 | 2824.99 |
| 9 | MAE | 1870.895 | 1380.534 | 2068.726 | MAPE | 5.177 | 3.214 | 6.686 | RMSE | 1918.816 | 1317.062 | 2392.004 |
| 10 | MAE | 1727.977 | 1303.522 | 1995.832 | MAPE | 4.577 | 3.007 | 6.538 | RMSE | 2024.748 | 1791.135 | 2576.147 |
| 11 | MAE | 1641.929 | 1278.96 | 1937.907 | MAPE | 4.805 | 2.952 | 5.295 | RMSE | 1931.604 | 1332.259 | 2379.148 |
| 12 | MAE | 1712.408 | 1279.819 | 2070.237 | MAPE | 4.752 | 2.969 | 8.598 | RMSE | 1956.912 | 1699.01 | 2492.603 |
| 13 | MAE | 1504.971 | 1250.954 | 1835.173 | MAPE | 4.684 | 2.92 | 5.283 | RMSE | 1983.986 | 1642.144 | 2452.337 |
| 14 | MAE | 1689.184 | 1240.922 | 1910.258 | MAPE | 4.877 | 2.903 | 6.259 | RMSE | 2106.195 | 1657.013 | 2541.691 |
| 15 | MAE | 1369.619 | 1026.713 | 1574.099 | MAPE | 5.89 | 2.874 | 9.283 | RMSE | 1778.669 | 1373.866 | 2319.12 |
| 16 | MAE | 1445.284 | 1020.28 | 1737.731 | MAPE | 4.728 | 2.852 | 7.031 | RMSE | 1768.346 | 1650.832 | 2249.522 |
| 17 | MAE | 1340.768 | 922.193 | 1711.119 | MAPE | 5.731 | 3.82 | 5.927 | RMSE | 1621.013 | 1123.776 | 2061.409 |
| 18 | MAE | 1401.959 | 1204.152 | 1662.161 | MAPE | 6.144 | 2.758 | 6.775 | RMSE | 1812.923 | 1566.042 | 2338.134 |
| 19 | MAE | 1314.433 | 1151.899 | 1657.877 | MAPE | 5.952 | 2.62 | 6.732 | RMSE | 1790.024 | 1564.745 | 2149.795 |
| 20 | MAE | 1405.25 | 1227.078 | 1648.65 | MAPE | 3.955 | 2.753 | 5.77 | RMSE | 2213.671 | 1685.073 | 2643.688 |
| 21 | MAE | 1526.528 | 1292.226 | 1989.541 | MAPE | 4.273 | 2.952 | 7.782 | RMSE | 2273.498 | 1773.176 | 2931.271 |
| 22 | MAE | 1540.723 | 1316.039 | 1971.014 | MAPE | 4.432 | 3.09 | 7.624 | RMSE | 1954.12 | 1765.161 | 2354.609 |
| 23 | MAE | 1721.727 | 1280.923 | 2252.269 | MAPE | 4.829 | 3.124 | 6.978 | RMSE | 1851.848 | 1686.158 | 2360.295 |
| 24 | MAE | 1820.898 | 1391.192 | 2567.675 | MAPE | 7.79 | 3.102 | 10.543 | RMSE | 1781.021 | 1532.95 | 2145.987 |
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