Research Article

Research on the Prediction Method of Monthly Hidden Danger Quantity in Coal Mine Based on BP Neural Network Periodic Combination Model

Table 1

A summary of several models commonly used for coal mine prediction.

ModelsFeatureAdvantagesDisadvantagesApplied to

GreyUse a small amount of incomplete information to establish a gray differential model; make a vague and long-term description of the development law of thingsHigh accuracy: sample does not require regularity and large numbers; suitable for medium and long-term predictionIgnore the internal mechanism of the system; unable to reflect system changes dynamicallyCoal mine gas emission forecast [11]
Ground settlement forecast [12]

ARIMAThe regression dependent variable is only established for its lag value and the current value of the random error termMathematical models only need endogenous variables rather than exogenous variablesTimed data are required to be stable; nonlinear relationships cannot be reflected; the determination of model parameters is very complicatedPrediction of methane emissions [13]
Carbon emission reduction forecast for developing countries under the epidemic [14]
Inference of mine accident rate behavior [15]

Linear regressionFind the influencing factors; establish the regression equation between the characteristics and the targetGood at analyzing multifactor models; providing error checking of model estimation parameters; easy to calculateThe unfathomability of certain influencing factors is not considered; the results cannot reflect periodic wavesCoal seam gas pressure prediction [16]
Forecast of miners’ escape speed [17]

Nonlinear regressionSuitable for explaining the nonlinear relationship between one variable and multiple variablesThe algorithm is easy to implement and deploy, and the execution efficiency and accuracy are highDiscrete independent variable data need to be used by generating virtual variablesPrediction of water inrush [18]
Maximum water inrush prediction [19]

Neural networkIt abstracts the human brain neural network from the perspective of information processing; it is usually a logical expression of an algorithmProvide self-learning functions and high-speed search optimal solutions; ultimately approach any complex nonlinear relationship; be able to learn and adapt to unknown or uncertain systemsUnable to explain the reasoning process and the basis of reasoning; unable to work when the data are insufficient; converting all inference into numerical calculations will lead to the loss of informationRisk status prediction of coal mine rock explosion [20]
Coal and gas outburst prediction [21]
Diagnosis of coal mining equipment [22]