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Modelling and Simulation in Engineering
Volume 2011, Article ID 798960, 10 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/798960
Research Article

A New Empirical Model for Short-Term Forecasting of the Broadband Penetration: A Short Research in Greece

Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, University of Patras, Rio, 26500 Patras, Greece

Received 25 January 2011; Accepted 26 August 2011

Academic Editor: Luis Carlos Rabelo

Copyright © 2011 Salpasaranis Konstantinos and Stylianakis Vasilios. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to present a short research about the overall broadband penetration in Greece. In this research, a new empirical deterministic model is proposed for the short-term forecast of the cumulative broadband adoption. The fitting performance of the model is compared with some widely used diffusion models for the cumulative adoption of new telecommunication products, namely, Logistic, Gompertz, Flexible Logistic (FLOG), Box-Cox, Richards, and Bass models. The fitting process is done with broadband penetration official data for Greece. In conclusion, comparing these models with the empirical model, it could be argued that the latter yields well enough statistics indicators for fitting and forecasting performance. It also stresses the need for further research and performance analysis of the model in other more mature broadband markets.