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Modelling and Simulation in Engineering
Volume 2015 (2015), Article ID 126738, 10 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/126738
Research Article

A New Approach to Improve Accuracy of Grey Model GMC in Time Series Prediction

1Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
2Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Kamphaeng Phet Rajabhat University, Kamphaeng Phet 62000, Thailand

Received 2 September 2015; Accepted 17 November 2015

Academic Editor: Min-Chie Chiu

Copyright © 2015 Sompop Moonchai and Wanwisa Rakpuang. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

This paper presents a modified grey model GMC for use in systems that involve one dependent system behavior and relative factors. The proposed model was developed from the conventional GMC model in order to improve its prediction accuracy by modifying the formula for calculating the background value, the system of parameter estimation, and the model prediction equation. The modified GMC model was verified by two cases: the study of forecasting CO2 emission in Thailand and forecasting electricity consumption in Thailand. The results demonstrated that the modified GMC model was able to achieve higher fitting and prediction accuracy compared with the conventional GMC and D-GMC models.