Risk Stratification after Biochemical Failure following Curative Treatment of Locally Advanced Prostate Cancer: Data from the TROG 96.01 Trial

Table 1

Evaluation of 12 “range finding” post-biochemical failure risk categorization (BFRC) schemes in univariable competing risk models for prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) after biochemical failure based on historical prognostic cutpoints for PSA doubling time and time to biochemical failure.

High risk^†		Low risk^†		BFRC performance
PSADT	TTBF	PSADT	TTBF	c-index (95% CI)		Ranking^‡	𝑃 value
<3	<1	>9	>3	0.724	(0.684–0.764)	1	—
<3	<2	>9	>4	0.705	(0.668–0.743)	4	0.095^§
<3	<3	>9	>5	0.685	(0.651–0.719)	8	0.001
<3	<1	>12	>3	0.720	(0.680–0.760)	2	0.489^§
<3	<2	>12	>4	0.695	(0.657–0.733)	5	0.026
<3	<3	>12	>5	0.667	(0.634–0.700)	9	<0.001
<6	<1	>15	>3	0.714	(0.680–0.749)	3	0.27^§
<6	<2	>15	>4	0.691	(0.658–0.725)	6	0.033
<6	<3	>15	>5	0.659	(0.629–0.689)	11	<0.001
<9	<1	>18	>3	0.690	(0.656–0.723)	7	0.003
<9	<2	>18	>4	0.664	(0.633–0.695)	10	<0.001
<9	<3	>18	>5	0.630	(0.603–0.658)	12	<0.001

PSA: prostate-specific antigen; BFRC: biochemical failure risk categorization; PSADT: PSA doubling time (months); TTBF: time from biochemical (Phoenix) failure (years); CI: confidence interval; c-index: Harrell’s concordance index.
^†Risk is defined by PSADT and/or TTBF ranges specified.
^‡Performance assessed by c-index, ranked highest (best) to lowest (worst). Performance against best BFRC compared using paired Student’s 𝑡-test.
^§c-index not significantly lower than best BFRC.