Table of Contents Author Guidelines Submit a Manuscript
Parkinson’s Disease
Volume 2012, Article ID 237673, 7 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/237673
Research Article

Accuracy of Fall Prediction in Parkinson Disease: Six-Month and 12-Month Prospective Analyses

1Program in Physical Therapy, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO 63108, USA
2Department of Physical Therapy, University of New England, Portland, ME 04103, USA
3Department of Physical Therapy, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84108, USA
4Department of Physical Therapy and Athletic Training, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
5Department of Physical Therapy, University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Health Professions, Birmingham, AL 35294, USA
6Department of Anatomy & Neurobiology, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO 63110, USA
7Department of Neurology, Washington University in St. Louis School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO 63110, USA

Received 26 July 2011; Revised 4 October 2011; Accepted 8 October 2011

Academic Editor: Alice Nieuwboer

Copyright © 2012 Ryan P. Duncan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Introduction. We analyzed the ability of four balance assessments to predict falls in people with Parkinson Disease (PD) prospectively over six and 12 months. Materials and Methods. The BESTest, Mini-BESTest, Functional Gait Assessment (FGA), and Berg Balance Scale (BBS) were administered to 80 participants with idiopathic PD at baseline. Falls were then tracked for 12 months. Ability of each test to predict falls at six and 12 months was assessed using ROC curves and likelihood ratios (LR). Results. Twenty-seven percent of the sample had fallen at six months, and 32% of the sample had fallen at 12 months. At six months, areas under the ROC curve (AUC) for the tests ranged from 0.8 (FGA) to 0.89 (BESTest) with LR+ of 3.4 (FGA) to 5.8 (BESTest). At 12 months, AUCs ranged from 0.68 (BESTest, BBS) to 0.77 (Mini-BESTest) with LR+ of 1.8 (BESTest) to 2.4 (BBS, FGA). Discussion. The various balance tests were effective in predicting falls at six months. All tests were relatively ineffective at 12 months. Conclusion. This pilot study suggests that people with PD should be assessed biannually for fall risk.