Accuracy of Fall Prediction in Parkinson Disease: Six-Month and 12-Month Prospective Analyses

Table 2

(a) Predictive values at 6 months.

Balance measure	AUC (95% CI)	Score	Sensitivity	Specificity	LR+(95%CI)	LR−(95%CI)	Posttest probability; with test ≤ cutoff value	Posttest probability; with test > cutoff value
BESTest	0.89 (0.74–0.95)	≤69%	0.93	0.84	5.81 (3.69–9.14)	0.08 (0.04–0.17)	0.69	0.03
Mini-BESTest	0.87 (0.72–0.94)	≤20/32(63%)	0.86	0.78	3.97 (2.68–5.70)	0.18 (0.11–0.78)	0.60	0.07
BBS	0.87 (0.75–0.95)	≤47/56	0.79	0.86	5.64 (3.43–9.27)	0.24 (0.17–0.36)	0.68	0.09
FGA	0.80 (0.62–0.90)	≤15/30	0.64	0.81	3.37 (2.19–5.18)	0.44 (0.34–0.59)	0.56	0.15

(b) Predictive values at 12 months.

Balance measure	AUC (95% CI)	Score	Sensitivity	Specificity	LR+(95%CI)	LR−(95%CI)	Posttest probability; with test ≤ cutoff value	Posttest probability; with test > cutoff value
BESTest	0.68 (0.45–0.83)	≤69%	0.46	0.74	1.77 (1.19–2.62)	0.73 (0.59–0.91)	0.46	0.26
Mini-BESTest	0.77 (0.55–0.89)	≤20/32(63%)	0.62	0.74	2.37 (1.66–3.34)	0.52 (0.39–0.68)	0.53	0.20
BBS	0.68 (0.45–0.82)	≤47/56	0.46	0.81	2.42 (1.53–3.82)	0.67 (0.54–0.82)	0.54	0.24
FGA	0.70 (0.50–0.83)	≤15/30	0.46	0.81	2.42 (1.53–3.82)	0.67 (0.54–0.82)	0.54	0.24