| | Link type (see “Statistical Methods Used by the PRIME”) | Risk factor | Outcome | Unit of change | Relative risk (95% confidence intervals) | Source |
| | 1 | Fruit | CHD | 106 g/day increase | 0.93 (0.89, 0.96) | [25] | | 1 | Stroke | 106 g/day increase | 0.89 (0.85, 0.93) | [26] | | 1 | Lung cancer | 80 g/day increase | 0.94 (0.90, 0.97) | [5] |
| | 1 | Vegetables | CHD | 106 g/day increase | 0.89 (0.83, 0.95) | [25] |
| | 1 | Fibre | CHD | 10 g/day increase | 0.81 (0.72, 0.92) | [27] | | 1 | Stroke | 7 g/day increase | 0.93 (0.88, 0.98) | [28] | | 1 | Colorectal cancer | 10 g/day increase | Men: 0.88 (0.78, 0.99)
Women: 0.92 (0.87, 0.98) | [29] |
| | 1 |
Serum cholesterol | CHD | 1 mmol/L decrease | Under 49: 0.44 (0.42, 0.48)
50–59: 0.58 (0.56, 0.61)
60–69: 0.72 (0.69, 0.74)
70–79: 0.82 (0.80, 0.85)
Over 79: 0.85 (0.82, 0.89) | [7] | | 1 | Stroke | 1 mmol/L decrease | Under 59: 0.90 (0.84, 0.97)
60–69: 1.02 (0.97, 1.08)
70–79: 1.04 (0.99, 1.09)
Over 79: 1.06 (1.00, 1.13) | [7] |
| | 1 |
Blood pressure | CHD | 20 mmHg SBP decrease | Under 49: 0.49 (0.45, 0.53)
50–59: 0.50 (0.49, 0.52)
60–69: 0.54 (0.53, 0.55)
70–79: 0.60 (0.58, 0.61)
Over 79: 0.67 (0.64, 0.70) | [6] | | 1 | Stroke | 20 mmHg SBP decrease | Under 49: 0.36 (0.32, 0.40)
50–59: 0.38 (0.35, 0.40)
60–69: 0.43 (0.41, 0.45)
70–79: 0.50 (0.48, 0.52)
Over 79: 0.67 (0.63, 0.71) | [6] | | 1 | Hypertensive disease | 20 mmHg SBP decrease | 0.22 (0.20, 0.25) | [6] | | 1 | Heart failure | 20 mmHg SBP decrease | 0.53 (0.48, 0.59) | [6] | | 1 | Pulmonary embolism | 20 mmHg SBP decrease | 0.72 (0.60, 0.87) | [6] | | 1 | Rheumatic heart disease | 20 mmHg SBP decrease | 0.74 (0.61, 0.89) | [6] | | 1 | Aortic aneurysm | 20 mmHg SBP decrease | 0.55 (0.49, 0.62) | [6] |
| | 1 |
Body mass index | CHD | 5 kg/m2 increase | Men, BMI 15–25: 1.27 (1.16, 1.39)
Women, BMI 15–25: 1.01 (0.86, 1.18)
Men, BMI 25–50: 1.42 (1.35, 1.48)
Women, BMI 25–50: 1.35 (1.28, 1.43) | [8] | | 1 | Stroke | 5 kg/m2 increase | BMI 15–25: 0.92 (0.82, 1.03)
BMI 25–50: 1.39 (1.31, 1.48) | [8] | | 1 | Heart failure | 5 kg/m2 increase | BMI 15–25: 0.93 (0.66, 1.29)
BMI 25–50: 1.86 (1.55, 2.23) | [8] | | 1 | Diabetes | 5 kg/m2 increase | BMI 15–25: 0.96 (0.59, 1.55)
BMI 25–50: 2.16 (1.89, 2.46) | [8] | | 1 | Hypertensive disease | 5 kg/m2 increase | BMI 15–25: 1.17 (0.77, 1.76)
BMI 25–50: 2.03 (1.75, 2.36) | [8] | | 1 | Pancreas cancer | 5 kg/m2 increase | 1.14 (1.07, 1.22) | [5] | | 1 | Colorectum cancer | 1 kg/m2 increase | 1.03 (1.02, 1.04) | [5] | | 1 | Breast cancer | 2 kg/m2 increase | Under 60: 0.94 (0.92, 0.95)
Over 60: 1.03 (1.01, 1.04) | [5] | | 1 | Endometrial cancer | 5 kg/m2 increase | 1.52 (1.35, 1.72) | [5] | | 1 | Kidney cancer | 5 kg/m2 increase | 1.31 (1.24, 1.39) | [5] | | 1 | Gallbladder cancer | 5 kg/m2 increase | 1.23 (1.15, 1.32) | [5] | | 1 | Kidney disease | 5 kg/m2 increase | BMI 15–25: 1.14 (0.74, 1.77)
BMI 25–50: 1.59 (1.27, 1.99) | [8] | | 1 | Liver disease | 5 kg/m2 increase | BMI 15–25: 0.73 (0.54, 1.00)
BMI 25–50: 1.79 (1.54, 2.08) | [8] |
| | 2 | Alcohol | CHD | Categorical, baseline zero consumption | <2.5 g/d: 0.92 (0.80, 1.06)
2.5–15 g/d: 0.79 (0.73, 0.86)
15–30 g/d: 0.79 (0.71, 0.88)
30–60 g/d: 0.77 (0.72, 0.83)
60+ g/d: 0.75 (0.53, 0.89) | [30] | | 2 | Stroke | Categorical, baseline zero consumption | <2.5 g/d: 1.00 (0.75, 1.34)
2.5–15 g/d: 0.86 (0.75, 0.99)
15–30 g/d: 1.15 (0.86, 1.54)
30–60 g/d: 1.10 (0.85, 1.45)
60+ g/d: 1.44 (0.99, 2.10) | [30] | | 2 | Diabetes | Categorical, baseline zero consumption | <6 g/d: 0.73 (0.62, 0.86)
6–12 g/d: 0.73 (0.62, 0.86)
12–24 g/d: 0.66 (0.59, 0.75)
24–48 g/d: 0.74 (0.63, 0.88)
48+ g/d: 0.93 (0.74, 1.18) | [31] | | 1 | M/L/P cancer | Per drink per week | 1.24 (1.18, 1.30) | [5] | | 1 | Colorectal cancer | 10 g/d increase | 1.09 (1.03, 1.14) | [5] | | 1 | Breast cancer | 10 g/d increase | 1.10 (1.06, 1.14) | [5] | | 1 | Liver cancer | 10 g/d increase | 1.10 (1.02, 1.17) | [5] | | 2 | Liver cirrhosis | Categorical, baseline zero consumption | Women, <12 g/d: 1.90 (1.10, 3.10)
Women, 12–24 g/d: 5.60 (4.50, 6.90)
Women, 24–36 g/d: 7.70 (6.30, 9.50)
Women, 36–48 g/d: 10.10 (7.50, 13.50)
Women, 48–60 g/d: 14.70 (11.00, 19.60)
Women. 60+ g/d: 22.70 (17.20, 30.10)
Men, <12 g/d: 1.00 (0.60, 1.60)
Men, 12–24 g/d: 1.60 (1.40, 2.00)
Men, 24–36 g/d: 2.80 (2.30, 3.40)
Men, 36–48 g/d: 5.60 (4.50, 7.00)
Men, 48–60 g/d: 7.00 (5.80, 8.50)
Men. 60+ g/d: 14.00 (11.70, 16.70) | [32] |
| | 3 | Tobacco | CHD | Categorical, baseline never smoked | Men, <65, current: 2.60 (2.40, 2.90)
Men, <65, former: 1.60 (1.40, 1.70)
Men, 65+, current: 1.50 (1.30, 1.60)
Men, 65+, former: 1.20 (1.10, 1.30)
Women, <65, current: 3.20 (2.80, 3.60)
Women, <65, former: 1.40 (1.20, 1.70)
Women, 65+, current: 1.70 (1.60, 1.90)
Women, 65+, former: 1.40 (1.30, 1.50) | [33] | | 3 | Stroke | Categorical, baseline never smoked | Men, <65, current: 2.40 (1.80, 3.00)
Men, <65, former: 1.00 (0.80, 1.40)
Men, 65+, current: 1.50 (1.20, 1.80)
Men, 65+, former: 1.00 (0.90, 1.20)
Women, <65, current: 3.80 (3.10, 4.70)
Women, <65, former: 1.50 (1.10, 2.00)
Women, 65+, current: 1.60 (1.40, 1.90)
Women, 65+, former: 1.20 (1.00, 1.40) | [33] | | 3 | Diabetes | Categorical, baseline never smoked | Current: 1.44 (1.31, 1.58)
Former: 1.23 (1.14, 1.33) | [34] | | 3 | M/L/P cancer | Categorical, baseline never smoked | Current: 6.98 (3.14, 15.50)
Former: 4.65 (3.35, 6.45) | [35] | | 3 | Oesophagus cancer | Categorical, baseline never smoked | Current: 3.57 (2.63, 4.48)
Former: 1.18 (0.73, 1.91) | [35] | | 3 | Lung cancer | Categorical, baseline never smoked | Current: 8.96 (6.73, 12.10)
Former: 3.85 (2.77, 5.34) | [35] | | 3 | Pancreas cancer | Categorical, baseline never smoked | Current: 1.70 (1.51, 1.91)
Former: 1.18 (1.04, 1.33) | [35] | | 3 | Endometrium cancer | Categorical, baseline never smoked | Current: 0.74 (0.64, 0.84)
Former: 0.88 (0.78, 0.99) | [36] | | 3 | Kidney cancer | Categorical, baseline never smoked | Current: 1.52 (1.33, 1.74)
Former: 1.25 (1.14, 1.37) | [35] | | 3 | Stomach cancer | Categorical, baseline never smoked | Current: 1.64 (1.37, 1.95)
Former: 1.31 (1.17, 1.46) | [35] | | 3 | Liver cancer | Categorical, baseline never smoked | Current: 1.56 (1.29, 1.87)
Former: 1.49 (1.06, 2.10) | [37] | | 3 | Cervix cancer | Categorical, baseline never smoked | Current: 1.83 (1.51, 2.21)
Former: 1.26 (1.11, 1.42) | [35] | | 3 | Bladder cancer | Categorical, baseline never smoked | Current: 2.77 (2.17, 3.54)
Former: 1.72 (1.46, 2.04) | [35] | | 3 | COPD | Categorical, baseline never smoked | Men, current: 10.80 (8.40, 13.90)
Men, former: 7.80 (6.10, 9.80)
Women, current: 12.30 (9.90, 15.20)
Women, former: 8.90 (7.10, 11.10) | [33] |
| | 1 |
Physical activity | CHD | 11.25 METhr/wk increase | 0.81 (0.75, 087) | Manuscript in preparation | | 1 | Stroke | 11.25 METhr/wk increase | 0.79 (0.68, 0.92) | Manuscript in preparation | | 1 | Heart failure | 11.25 METhr/wk increase | 0.86 (0.82, 0.89) | Manuscript in preparation | | 1 | Breast cancer | 11.25 METhr/wk increase | 0.91 (0.87, 0.95) | Manuscript in preparation | | 1 | Lung cancer | 11.25 METhr/wk increase | 0.74 (0.63, 0.86) | Manuscript in preparation | | 1 | Stomach cancer | 11.25 METhr/wk increase | 0.74 (0.64, 0.85) | Manuscript in preparation |
| | | Food component | Outcome | Unit of change | Regression parameter (95% confidence intervals | Source |
| | 6 | Total fat | Total serum cholesterol (mmol/L) | 1% of total calories increase | 0.020 (0.010, 0.030) | [38] |
| | 6 | Saturated fat | Total serum cholesterol (mmol/L) | 1% of total calories increase | 0.052 (0.046, 0.058) | [38] |
| | 6 | MUFAs | Total serum cholesterol (mmol/L) | 1% of total calories increase | 0.005 (−0.001, 0.011) | [38] |
| | 6 | PUFAs | Total serum cholesterol (mmol/L) | 1% of total calories increase | −0.026 (−0.034, −0.018) | [38] |
| | 6 | Dietary cholesterol | Total serum cholesterol (mmol/L) | 1 mg/d increase | 0.001 (0.001, 0.001) | [38] |
| | 5 | Salt | Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) | 6 g/day reduction | −5.80 (−2.50, −9.20) | [10] |
| | 4 | Total energy intake/physical activity level | Change in body weight (kg) | 1 MJ/PAL increase | Men: 17.7
Women: 20.7 | [39] |
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