Table 1: Epidemiological parameters used in the PRIME.

Link type (see “Statistical Methods Used by the PRIME”)Risk factorOutcomeUnit of changeRelative risk (95% confidence intervals)Source

1FruitCHD106 g/day increase0.93 (0.89, 0.96)[25]
1Stroke106 g/day increase0.89 (0.85, 0.93)[26]
1Lung cancer80 g/day increase0.94 (0.90, 0.97)[5]

1VegetablesCHD106 g/day increase0.89 (0.83, 0.95)[25]

1FibreCHD10 g/day increase0.81 (0.72, 0.92)[27]
1Stroke7 g/day increase0.93 (0.88, 0.98)[28]
1Colorectal cancer10 g/day increaseMen: 0.88 (0.78, 0.99)
Women: 0.92 (0.87, 0.98)
[29]

1 Serum cholesterolCHD1 mmol/L decreaseUnder 49: 0.44 (0.42, 0.48)
50–59: 0.58 (0.56, 0.61)
60–69: 0.72 (0.69, 0.74)
70–79: 0.82 (0.80, 0.85)
Over 79: 0.85 (0.82, 0.89)
[7]
1Stroke1 mmol/L decreaseUnder 59: 0.90 (0.84, 0.97)
60–69: 1.02 (0.97, 1.08)
70–79: 1.04 (0.99, 1.09)
Over 79: 1.06 (1.00, 1.13)
[7]

1 Blood pressureCHD20 mmHg SBP decreaseUnder 49: 0.49 (0.45, 0.53)
50–59: 0.50 (0.49, 0.52)
60–69: 0.54 (0.53, 0.55)
70–79: 0.60 (0.58, 0.61)
Over 79: 0.67 (0.64, 0.70)
[6]
1Stroke20 mmHg SBP decreaseUnder 49: 0.36 (0.32, 0.40)
50–59: 0.38 (0.35, 0.40)
60–69: 0.43 (0.41, 0.45)
70–79: 0.50 (0.48, 0.52)
Over 79: 0.67 (0.63, 0.71)
[6]
1Hypertensive disease20 mmHg SBP decrease0.22 (0.20, 0.25)[6]
1Heart failure20 mmHg SBP decrease0.53 (0.48, 0.59)[6]
1Pulmonary embolism20 mmHg SBP decrease0.72 (0.60, 0.87)[6]
1Rheumatic heart disease20 mmHg SBP decrease0.74 (0.61, 0.89)[6]
1Aortic aneurysm20 mmHg SBP decrease0.55 (0.49, 0.62)[6]

1 Body mass indexCHD5 kg/m2 increaseMen, BMI 15–25: 1.27 (1.16, 1.39)
Women, BMI 15–25: 1.01 (0.86, 1.18)
Men, BMI 25–50: 1.42 (1.35, 1.48)
Women, BMI 25–50: 1.35 (1.28, 1.43)
[8]
1Stroke5 kg/m2 increaseBMI 15–25: 0.92 (0.82, 1.03)
BMI 25–50: 1.39 (1.31, 1.48)
[8]
1Heart failure5 kg/m2 increaseBMI 15–25: 0.93 (0.66, 1.29)
BMI 25–50: 1.86 (1.55, 2.23)
[8]
1Diabetes5 kg/m2 increaseBMI 15–25: 0.96 (0.59, 1.55)
BMI 25–50: 2.16 (1.89, 2.46)
[8]
1Hypertensive disease5 kg/m2 increaseBMI 15–25: 1.17 (0.77, 1.76)
BMI 25–50: 2.03 (1.75, 2.36)
[8]
1Pancreas cancer5 kg/m2 increase1.14 (1.07, 1.22)[5]
1Colorectum cancer1 kg/m2 increase1.03 (1.02, 1.04)[5]
1Breast cancer2 kg/m2 increaseUnder 60: 0.94 (0.92, 0.95)
Over 60: 1.03 (1.01, 1.04)
[5]
1Endometrial cancer5 kg/m2 increase1.52 (1.35, 1.72)[5]
1Kidney cancer5 kg/m2 increase1.31 (1.24, 1.39)[5]
1Gallbladder cancer5 kg/m2 increase1.23 (1.15, 1.32)[5]
1Kidney disease5 kg/m2 increaseBMI 15–25: 1.14 (0.74, 1.77)
BMI 25–50: 1.59 (1.27, 1.99)
[8]
1Liver disease5 kg/m2 increaseBMI 15–25: 0.73 (0.54, 1.00)
BMI 25–50: 1.79 (1.54, 2.08)
[8]

2AlcoholCHDCategorical, baseline zero consumption<2.5 g/d: 0.92 (0.80, 1.06)
2.5–15 g/d: 0.79 (0.73, 0.86)
15–30 g/d: 0.79 (0.71, 0.88)
30–60 g/d: 0.77 (0.72, 0.83)
60+ g/d: 0.75 (0.53, 0.89)
[30]
2StrokeCategorical, baseline zero consumption<2.5 g/d: 1.00 (0.75, 1.34)
2.5–15 g/d: 0.86 (0.75, 0.99)
15–30 g/d: 1.15 (0.86, 1.54)
30–60 g/d: 1.10 (0.85, 1.45)
60+ g/d: 1.44 (0.99, 2.10)
[30]
2DiabetesCategorical, baseline zero consumption<6 g/d: 0.73 (0.62, 0.86)
6–12 g/d: 0.73 (0.62, 0.86)
12–24 g/d: 0.66 (0.59, 0.75)
24–48 g/d: 0.74 (0.63, 0.88)
48+ g/d: 0.93 (0.74, 1.18)
[31]
1M/L/P cancerPer drink per week1.24 (1.18, 1.30)[5]
1Colorectal cancer10 g/d increase1.09 (1.03, 1.14)[5]
1Breast cancer10 g/d increase1.10 (1.06, 1.14)[5]
1Liver cancer10 g/d increase1.10 (1.02, 1.17)[5]
2Liver cirrhosisCategorical, baseline zero consumptionWomen, <12 g/d: 1.90 (1.10, 3.10)
Women, 12–24 g/d: 5.60 (4.50, 6.90)
Women, 24–36 g/d: 7.70 (6.30, 9.50)
Women, 36–48 g/d: 10.10 (7.50, 13.50)
Women, 48–60 g/d: 14.70 (11.00, 19.60)
Women. 60+ g/d: 22.70 (17.20, 30.10)
Men, <12 g/d: 1.00 (0.60, 1.60)
Men, 12–24 g/d: 1.60 (1.40, 2.00)
Men, 24–36 g/d: 2.80 (2.30, 3.40)
Men, 36–48 g/d: 5.60 (4.50, 7.00)
Men, 48–60 g/d: 7.00 (5.80, 8.50)
Men. 60+ g/d: 14.00 (11.70, 16.70)
[32]

3TobaccoCHDCategorical, baseline never smokedMen, <65, current: 2.60 (2.40, 2.90)
Men, <65, former: 1.60 (1.40, 1.70)
Men, 65+, current: 1.50 (1.30, 1.60)
Men, 65+, former: 1.20 (1.10, 1.30)
Women, <65, current: 3.20 (2.80, 3.60)
Women, <65, former: 1.40 (1.20, 1.70)
Women, 65+, current: 1.70 (1.60, 1.90)
Women, 65+, former: 1.40 (1.30, 1.50)
[33]
3StrokeCategorical, baseline never smokedMen, <65, current: 2.40 (1.80, 3.00)
Men, <65, former: 1.00 (0.80, 1.40)
Men, 65+, current: 1.50 (1.20, 1.80)
Men, 65+, former: 1.00 (0.90, 1.20)
Women, <65, current: 3.80 (3.10, 4.70)
Women, <65, former: 1.50 (1.10, 2.00)
Women, 65+, current: 1.60 (1.40, 1.90)
Women, 65+, former: 1.20 (1.00, 1.40)
[33]
3DiabetesCategorical, baseline never smokedCurrent: 1.44 (1.31, 1.58)
Former: 1.23 (1.14, 1.33)
[34]
3M/L/P cancerCategorical, baseline never smokedCurrent: 6.98 (3.14, 15.50)
Former: 4.65 (3.35, 6.45)
[35]
3Oesophagus cancerCategorical, baseline never smokedCurrent: 3.57 (2.63, 4.48)
Former: 1.18 (0.73, 1.91)
[35]
3Lung cancerCategorical, baseline never smokedCurrent: 8.96 (6.73, 12.10)
Former: 3.85 (2.77, 5.34)
[35]
3Pancreas cancerCategorical, baseline never smokedCurrent: 1.70 (1.51, 1.91)
Former: 1.18 (1.04, 1.33)
[35]
3Endometrium cancerCategorical, baseline never smokedCurrent: 0.74 (0.64, 0.84)
Former: 0.88 (0.78, 0.99)
[36]
3Kidney cancerCategorical, baseline never smokedCurrent: 1.52 (1.33, 1.74)
Former: 1.25 (1.14, 1.37)
[35]
3Stomach cancerCategorical, baseline never smokedCurrent: 1.64 (1.37, 1.95)
Former: 1.31 (1.17, 1.46)
[35]
3Liver cancerCategorical, baseline never smokedCurrent: 1.56 (1.29, 1.87)
Former: 1.49 (1.06, 2.10)
[37]
3Cervix cancerCategorical, baseline never smokedCurrent: 1.83 (1.51, 2.21)
Former: 1.26 (1.11, 1.42)
[35]
3Bladder cancerCategorical, baseline never smokedCurrent: 2.77 (2.17, 3.54)
Former: 1.72 (1.46, 2.04)
[35]
3COPDCategorical, baseline never smokedMen, current: 10.80 (8.40, 13.90)
Men, former: 7.80 (6.10, 9.80)
Women, current: 12.30 (9.90, 15.20)
Women, former: 8.90 (7.10, 11.10)
[33]

1 Physical activityCHD11.25 METhr/wk increase0.81 (0.75, 087)Manuscript in preparation
1Stroke11.25 METhr/wk increase0.79 (0.68, 0.92)Manuscript in preparation
1Heart failure11.25 METhr/wk increase0.86 (0.82, 0.89)Manuscript in preparation
1Breast cancer11.25 METhr/wk increase0.91 (0.87, 0.95)Manuscript in preparation
1Lung cancer11.25 METhr/wk increase0.74 (0.63, 0.86)Manuscript in preparation
1Stomach cancer11.25 METhr/wk increase0.74 (0.64, 0.85)Manuscript in preparation

Food componentOutcomeUnit of changeRegression parameter (95% confidence intervalsSource

6Total fatTotal serum cholesterol (mmol/L)1% of total calories increase0.020 (0.010, 0.030)[38]

6Saturated fatTotal serum cholesterol (mmol/L)1% of total calories increase0.052 (0.046, 0.058)[38]

6MUFAsTotal serum cholesterol (mmol/L)1% of total calories increase0.005 (−0.001, 0.011)[38]

6PUFAsTotal serum cholesterol (mmol/L)1% of total calories increase−0.026 (−0.034, −0.018)[38]

6Dietary cholesterolTotal serum cholesterol (mmol/L)1 mg/d increase0.001 (0.001, 0.001)[38]

5SaltSystolic blood pressure (mmHg)6 g/day reduction−5.80 (−2.50, −9.20)[10]

4Total energy intake/physical activity levelChange in body weight (kg)1 MJ/PAL increaseMen: 17.7
Women: 20.7
[39]

Note. Table first appeared in [40].