Research Article
Risk Analysis on Leakage Failure of Natural Gas Pipelines by Fuzzy Bayesian Network with a Bow-Tie Model
Table 6
Prior probabilities of basic events based on SAM.
| Basic event | Linguistic expressions | Aggregated expert decision | Defuzzed possibility | Prior probability |
| | | 0.2619 | 0.4524 | 0.4524 | 0.6429 | 0.4524 | 0.0035 | | | 0.2121 | 0.3902 | 0.3902 | 0.5682 | 0.3902 | 0.0021 | | | 0.2015 | 0.3769 | 0.3769 | 0.5523 | 0.3769 | 0.0019 | | | 0.0272 | 0.0680 | 0.1408 | 0.2544 | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0.1000 | 0.2000 | | | | | 0.0508 | 0.1269 | 0.1761 | 0.3015 | | | | | 0.0561 | 0.1402 | 0.1841 | 0.3121 | | | | | 0.0439 | 0.1098 | 0.1659 | 0.2879 | | | | | 0.1000 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.4000 | | | | | 0.0735 | 0.1839 | 0.2103 | 0.3471 | | | | | 0.0781 | 0.1952 | 0.2171 | 0.3562 | | | | | 0.0196 | 0.0491 | 0.1295 | 0.2393 | | | | | 0.3263 | 0.5057 | 0.5057 | 0.6851 | | 0.0052 | | | 0.0781 | 0.1952 | 0.2171 | 0.3562 | | | | | 0.0804 | 0.2009 | 0.2205 | 0.3607 | | | | | 0.4545 | 0.6288 | 0.6288 | 0.8030 | | 0.0117 | | | 0.1000 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.4000 | | | | | 0.0804 | 0.2009 | 0.2205 | 0.3607 | | | | | 0.1000 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.4000 | 0.25 | | | | 0.0804 | 0.2009 | 0.2205 | 0.3607 | | | | | 0.0781 | 0.1952 | 0.2171 | 0.3562 | | |
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