Solution Monitoring Evaluated by Proliferation Risk Assessment and Fuzzy Optimization Analysis for Safeguards in a Reprocessing Process

<table>Markov model applied to estimation of the incidence probability. “<svg height="15.7" id="M25" style="vertical-align:-3.27605pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 21.625 15.7" width="21.625" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.55)"><path d="M649 676l-22 -187l-33 -2q3 56 -12 94q-8 20 -31.5 26.5t-86.5 6.5h-74l-90 -491q-4 -23 -6 -36.5t1 -25t7 -16.5t18 -9t27 -5t41 -3l-6 -28h-286l4 28q68 5 84 18.5t28 76.5l94 491h-55q-74 0 -100.5 -6t-41.5 -23q-24 -29 -54 -98l-32 1q32 98 53 188h22q7 -18 15 -22
t37 -4h417q23 0 33.5 5t25.5 21h23z" id="x1D447"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,11.388,15.637)"><path d="M780 372q0 -191 -178 -297q-128 -75 -335 -75h-250l7 27q61 7 77 22t28 76l77 398q11 62 0 76.5t-77 22.5l6 28h292q164 0 258.5 -67.5t94.5 -210.5zM678 375q0 119 -73 180.5t-201 61.5q-62 0 -82 -13q-17 -7 -25 -53l-80 -427q-8 -47 -4 -62t26 -20q24 -6 80 -6
q166 0 262.5 95t96.5 244z" id="x1D437"></path></g>
</svg>” is the time needed to detect an anomaly, “<svg height="15.5375" id="M26" style="vertical-align:-3.27605pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 22.2875 15.5375" width="22.2875" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.4)"><path d="M682 629q-1 -16 -1.5 -72t-2.5 -86l-31 -4q-5 92 -51 129t-139 37q-100 0 -177 -49t-116 -125t-39 -162q0 -122 66 -201t182 -79q83 0 137 42.5t112 128.5l26 -15q-12 -31 -42.5 -88t-45.5 -75q-139 -27 -199 -27q-148 0 -243 81.5t-95 226.5q0 173 129.5 274.5
t325.5 101.5q114 0 204 -38z" id="x1D436"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,12.05,15.475)"><path d="M780 372q0 -191 -178 -297q-128 -75 -335 -75h-250l7 27q61 7 77 22t28 76l77 398q11 62 0 76.5t-77 22.5l6 28h292q164 0 258.5 -67.5t94.5 -210.5zM678 375q0 119 -73 180.5t-201 61.5q-62 0 -82 -13q-17 -7 -25 -53l-80 -427q-8 -47 -4 -62t26 -20q24 -6 80 -6
q166 0 262.5 95t96.5 244z" id="x1D437"></path></g>
</svg>” the confidence level of diversion confirmation, “<svg height="15.825" id="M27" style="vertical-align:-3.38113pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 33.125 15.825" width="33.125" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.55)"><path d="M649 676l-22 -187l-33 -2q3 56 -12 94q-8 20 -31.5 26.5t-86.5 6.5h-74l-90 -491q-4 -23 -6 -36.5t1 -25t7 -16.5t18 -9t27 -5t41 -3l-6 -28h-286l4 28q68 5 84 18.5t28 76.5l94 491h-55q-74 0 -100.5 -6t-41.5 -23q-24 -29 -54 -98l-32 1q32 98 53 188h22q7 -18 15 -22
t37 -4h417q23 0 33.5 5t25.5 21h23z" id="x1D447"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,11.388,15.638)"><path d="M43 650h280q194 0 282 -85q85 -82 85 -215q0 -173 -123 -267q-107 -83 -297 -83h-236v27q65 5 79.5 19.5t14.5 77.5v402q0 45 -6 62.5t-21.5 24t-57.5 9.5v28zM213 547v-416q0 -55 24.5 -75t81.5 -20q133 0 203 86t70 214q0 80 -30 143t-88 97q-66 41 -170 41
q-62 0 -78 -13q-13 -9 -13 -57z" id="x44"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,20.026,15.638)"><path d="M303 0h-265v28q62 5 76 19.5t14 77.5v400q0 63 -14 77.5t-76 19.5v28h265v-28q-62 -5 -76 -19.5t-14 -77.5v-400q0 -64 14 -78t76 -19v-28z" id="x49"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,24.083,15.638)"><path d="M687 650v-28q-52 -6 -71.5 -23t-47.5 -83q-142 -346 -208 -527h-31q-119 325 -207 545q-21 54 -39.5 68.5t-65.5 19.5v28h245v-28q-52 -5 -61.5 -15.5t3.5 -43.5q55 -157 166 -437h2q120 303 158 421q14 43 3.5 55.5t-71.5 19.5v28h225z" id="x56"></path></g>
</svg>” the time of coupling diversion without any intrinsic barrier, “<svg height="15.7" id="M28" style="vertical-align:-3.27605pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 27 15.7" width="27" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.55)"><path d="M649 676l-22 -187l-33 -2q3 56 -12 94q-8 20 -31.5 26.5t-86.5 6.5h-74l-90 -491q-4 -23 -6 -36.5t1 -25t7 -16.5t18 -9t27 -5t41 -3l-6 -28h-286l4 28q68 5 84 18.5t28 76.5l94 491h-55q-74 0 -100.5 -6t-41.5 -23q-24 -29 -54 -98l-32 1q32 98 53 188h22q7 -18 15 -22
t37 -4h417q23 0 33.5 5t25.5 21h23z" id="x1D447"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,11.388,15.637)"><path d="M43 650h280q194 0 282 -85q85 -82 85 -215q0 -173 -123 -267q-107 -83 -297 -83h-236v27q65 5 79.5 19.5t14.5 77.5v402q0 45 -6 62.5t-21.5 24t-57.5 9.5v28zM213 547v-416q0 -55 24.5 -75t81.5 -20q133 0 203 86t70 214q0 80 -30 143t-88 97q-66 41 -170 41
q-62 0 -78 -13q-13 -9 -13 -57z" id="x44"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,20.026,15.637)"><path d="M493 503l-29 -4q-13 56 -28 80q-13 22 -35.5 29.5t-78.5 7.5h-76q-22 0 -27.5 -5t-5.5 -27v-238h103q66 0 82.5 12t25.5 62h29v-193h-29q-9 54 -25.5 67t-82.5 13h-103v-181q0 -64 15 -78.5t84 -19.5v-28h-272v28q61 5 74.5 19.5t13.5 78.5v399q0 64 -13 78t-72 19v28
h440q1 -40 10 -147z" id="x46"></path></g>
</svg>” the mean time to diversion failure, “<svg height="15.875" id="M29" style="vertical-align:-3.41936pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 26.450001 15.875" width="26.450001" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.55)"><path d="M649 676l-22 -187l-33 -2q3 56 -12 94q-8 20 -31.5 26.5t-86.5 6.5h-74l-90 -491q-4 -23 -6 -36.5t1 -25t7 -16.5t18 -9t27 -5t41 -3l-6 -28h-286l4 28q68 5 84 18.5t28 76.5l94 491h-55q-74 0 -100.5 -6t-41.5 -23q-24 -29 -54 -98l-32 1q32 98 53 188h22q7 -18 15 -22
t37 -4h417q23 0 33.5 5t25.5 21h23z" id="x1D447"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,11.388,15.637)"><path d="M43 650h280q194 0 282 -85q85 -82 85 -215q0 -173 -123 -267q-107 -83 -297 -83h-236v27q65 5 79.5 19.5t14.5 77.5v402q0 45 -6 62.5t-21.5 24t-57.5 9.5v28zM213 547v-416q0 -55 24.5 -75t81.5 -20q133 0 203 86t70 214q0 80 -30 143t-88 97q-66 41 -170 41
q-62 0 -78 -13q-13 -9 -13 -57z" id="x44"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,20.133,15.637)"><path d="M409 504l-29 -5q-16 60 -44.5 96t-86.5 36q-54 0 -82.5 -32t-28.5 -77q0 -51 30.5 -82.5t96.5 -65.5l35.5 -18t33 -19.5t33.5 -23.5l27 -25.5t24.5 -32t13.5 -36.5t6 -45q0 -80 -62 -134.5t-160 -54.5q-47 0 -98 15q-22 7 -50 21q-8 23 -27 155l30 7q7 -27 18 -52
t30 -51.5t49 -42.5t67 -16q56 0 88 32.5t32 87.5q0 51 -31.5 82t-98.5 67q-80 44 -110 73q-55 53 -55 124q0 75 56 126.5t150 51.5q53 0 126 -23z" id="x53"></path></g>
</svg>” the mean time to diversion success, and “<svg height="7.9499998" id="M30" style="vertical-align:-0.1638pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 8.7250004 7.9499998" width="8.7250004" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,7.675)"><path d="M483 97q-42 -50 -88.5 -79.5t-68.5 -29.5q-37 0 -17 93l22 102h-2q-54 -79 -144 -149q-59 -46 -100 -46q-24 0 -43 29t-19 86q0 78 34.5 153t94.5 120q41 31 94 51.5t98 20.5q29 0 72 -9q26 -6 39 -6l2 -4q-30 -117 -67 -323q-8 -41 2 -41q16 0 79 58zM374 387
q-32 15 -73 15q-52 0 -83 -23q-48 -36 -78 -108.5t-30 -152.5q0 -33 8.5 -50.5t20.5 -17.5q31 0 107 79t99 132q15 40 29 126z" id="x1D44E"></path></g>
</svg>” the time factor related to intrinsic barriers.</table>

Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations

fig4

Figure 4

Figure 4: Solution Monitoring Evaluated by Proliferation Risk Assessment and Fuzzy Optimization Analysis for Safeguards in a Reprocessing Process 